Syracuse at Pittsburgh (Thursday – 7:30pm ET)
Syracuse travels to Pittsburgh on a short week in ACC play for both teams on Thursday night. The Panthers are 2-0 following a low scoring win in the rain over UCF on Saturday. The Orange fell to 1-1 on Saturday, coming undone in an ugly home loss to Cal. Syracuse was outscored 14-6 in the second half, with crucial turnovers and missed field goals opening the door for the Golden Bears to get the road win.
The Orange performed well with Steve Angeli under center last season, and expectations were there for this offense to bounce-back with the QB returning. Syracuse stomped out New Hampshire (FCS) in the opener that wasn’t really a test, and the offense took a step back against Cal. While the yardage was there, Angeli was not efficient, tossing three interceptions and completing less than 50% of his passes. Cal’s DB, Kingston Lopa, had all three of the picks, and took one back to the house to win the game.
This will be the toughest test yet with the short week on the road, going up against what remains one of the few sure things in college football — a stout Pat Narduzzi defense. Pitt held the Knights to just 20 rushing yards in the Week 2 win. The Panthers admitted that the weather made it tough to throw the ball against UCF, so while Mason Heintschel was 18-of-29 for 212 passing yards, maybe they deserve a bit of a pass for not lighting it up through the air.
We saw a much more lethal passing attack in Week 1, albeit against Miami OH, with 453 passing yards and seven touchdowns. Still, much tougher of an opponent than Syracuse faced in the opener. Pitt looks to be stronger on both sides of the ball, and the home field on the short week should also make a difference.
I’m pretty confident in the Panthers to win this game, but would prefer to lay inside of -10. I also feel the Pitt defense should be able to limit Syracuse. If its able to stop the run like it did against UCF, the Orange become one dimensional, and Angeli will make mistakes. The total has been bet down a couple of points since open, but I still lean to the under. What has me hesitant is that Pitt’s offense could hang a big number here.
I lean to laying it with the Panthers and the game to stay under the total, but am yet to fire on either. I’ll likely have Pitt involved as a leg in a moneyline parlay. If you wanted to build a SGP around this game, you could also look to Pitt ML with an ALT under on a higher total.
CFB Leans: Pitt -10.5 (-105) & UNDER 51.5 (-110)
