In a loaded WNBA playoff picture, seeding has become paramount. The Las Vegas Aces can kiss their hopes of the No. 1 overall seed goodbye, but the second seed remains within their grasp. With other teams breathing down their neck in the standings, these last four regular-season games have become extremely important for the defending champs. On Thursday, a plucky Seattle Storm team with nothing to lose stands in their way; will they pull off the big home upset?
The Aces enter as 9.5-point road favorites with -440 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Storm are +340 underdogs, with the game total set at 173.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Aces-Storm matchup.
Aces vs. Storm Preview
This is the second of three regular-season matchups between these two squads; they’ll meet again on Sunday. The first matchup, a 101-91 win for the Aces, was every bit an A’ja Wilson game. The M’VP scored 34 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, dished out nine assists, and blocked three shots. It was a commanding two-way performance to box out the Storm when they were spoiling for the upset.
This time around, they’ll need another A-game from her. Seattle loves to drive and to use their massive, skilled frontcourt, placing a heavy burden on Wilson defensively. She’s used to that sort of thing, but NaLyssa Smith has been a valuable assistant on that end of the floor. She was excellent in the first matchup, affecting lots of shots while grabbing nine boards. Unfortunately for the Aces, Smith will remain out for the rest of the season after suffering a leg injury. Head coach Becky Hammon and the team are still working through ways to replace her production, and will have to adapt on the fly against the Storm.
Seattle’s key will be using their size against Las Vegas. With no Smith, they’re likely to use a lot of small-ball lineups around Wilson. That creates advantages for Dominique Malonga and Awa Fam, who continue to develop their offensive games together. They’ll also need to be awfully active defensively to stop Wilson from destroying them in the paint. Rebounding is the key here; Seattle cannot afford to lose the board battle the way they did in the first matchup. That starts with Malonga, but the whole roster has to contribute on the glass here.
A major X-factor is Flau’jae Johnson. Seattle has had no issue putting a lot on Johnson’s plate on both ends of the floor. In this matchup, she’ll be relied on for a lot of self-creation, leveraging her size and shot-making to find holes in Las Vegas’ defense. They also need her to pressure Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, who can break any defense on any given night. Adding a few points here and taking away a few points there would go a long way towards the upset for the Storm.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Aces vs. Storm Pick, Best Bet
NaLyssa Smith’s absence is important in this game. Without her, Las Vegas loses an important cog on both ends of the floor, forcing them into a higher-scoring game than they are comfortable with. I expect the pace to pick up on both ends of the floor, which bodes very well for the over.
