American League clubs meet for a second time this season, as the New York Yankees kick off a three-game series with the Minnesota Twins on Monday night at Target Field.
The Yankees (86–63, 2nd AL East) recently welcomed back superstar outfielder Aaron Judge and are coming off a Subway Series victory over the Mets in the Bronx. The Twins (70–79, 3rd AL Central) opened their homestand by dropping two of three games to the Guardians, continuing their brutal second half of 2026.
The clubs first met in early July at Yankee Stadium, where the Twins took two of three matchups.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got New York right-hander Will Warren (10–6, 4.05 ERA) taking on Minnesota righty Dean Kremer (3–5, 5.65 ERA).
First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Yankees enter as 1.5-run road favorites with -126 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Twins are +105 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U eight runs.
Yankees vs Twins Preview
New York Yankees
Unsurprisingly, the Yankees appear far more formidable after welcoming back the greatest hitter of his generation. Aaron Judge has been a sight for sore eyes since rejoining the lineup on September 8; despite his early struggles, his mere presence in the order has raised New York’s offensive ceiling exponentially. With Oscar-worthy supporting roles from Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Luis Garcia Jr., the Yankees have piled up five or more runs in four of six games since Judge’s return. They’ve gone 5–1 over that stretch.
The Yankees hold a comfortable 4.5–game lead over the Red Sox for the top Wild Card spot behind their excellent pitching staff, which leads MLB in overall ERA (3.24) and starter ERA (3.30). Monday’s starter, Will Warren, will look to build on his strong run of form after allowing only two earned runs over his last 15.1 innings of work (1.17 ERA). But the young right-hander, 27, has a penchant for unpredictability, and he heads into Monday ranked in the bottom nine percent of pitchers in hard-hit rate (44.2 percent), average exit velocity (90.8), and pitching run value (-14).
Minnesota Twins
The Twins charged into the All-Star break in the heat of the postseason race, fueled by one of the most potent offenses in the sport. That momentum, however, has all but evaporated over the past two months. Minnesota has gone a brutal 22–30 in the second half — eighth-worst in MLB — and sits a distant 5.5 games out of the Wild Card.
Byron Buxton’s season-ending hip surgery seemingly serves as the coup de grace for the Twins offense, which ranks 23rd in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA since the break. And the beleaguered pitching staff hasn’t been able to stop the slide. The Twins will now lean on right-hander Dean Kremer, who has continued to struggle since joining the club after the trade deadline. The ex-Orioles veteran, 30, is saddled with a 5.65 ERA (4.62 xERA) across 14 starts in 2026 — the 15th-highest mark in MLB (min. 70 IP)..
Yankees vs. Twins Pick, Best Bet
The Twins may have taken the first series against the Yankees this year, but now they’ll have to worry about Aaron Judge. The return of the three-time MVP completely transforms New York’s season outlook, bolstering a star-studded offense to complement a league-best pitching staff. And for all of Will Warren’s struggles, he’s certainly been a more reliable weapon than the embattled Dean Kremer. The Bronx Bombers should strike first in Monday’s series opener.
