San Diego left San Francisco with a sweep, seven straight wins, and some breathing room in the wild-card race. At 81-68, the Padres lead Arizona by 2.5 games, and trail the Cubs/Phils by only 1.5. Colorado, meanwhile, has lost seven straight, solidifying their lost season as utterly gone forever. Four games against the Rockies offer San Diego a chance to improve its October accommodations considerably, and they look poised to seize the opportunity. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rockies vs. Padres prediction, preview
Admittedly, I’d feel better about Casey Mize handling his part if his adjustment to San Diego went a little more smoothly. Since the trade, he’s allowed nine home runs in 32.2 innings, with a 6.34 ERA. He struck out seven against Washington on Tuesday, which was encouraging; he still, however, allowed three runs in 5.2 innings. His slider’s only generating a 13.6% chase rate and a 5.4% swinging-strike rate. These NL hitters are laying off his best pitches and making him work harder than he’s used to.
Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts, which, coincidentally, span precisely 19 innings. His season-long 14.2 K% leaves plenty of work for Colorado’s defense, and Jackson Merrill has been making loud, violent, playoff-bound contact lately for the Pads. Merrill has 14 September hits, eight for extra bases, against five strikeouts in 46 plate appearances. I particularly like his matchup against Sugano’s sinker: Sugano allows .596 expected slugging against that pitch, with a 5.1% whiff rate. Merrill has batted .406 against sinkers this season.
Colorado’s offense is dead in the water. Hunter Goodman’s got four hits in 39 September at-bats. Two left the yard, including Saturday’s three-run home run, but it’s still ugly. TJ Rumfield is in the middle of a 19-game on-base streak, but it’s mostly empty. Against Mize, who has surrendered home runs in four consecutive starts, I can see Colorado producing enough offense to contribute to a total.
Padres vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Both clubs traveled Sunday, and Colorado needed six bullpen innings against Detroit a day after allowing seven runs in the eighth. San Diego used five relievers after Nick Pivetta grinded through only four innings. Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon are rested, though, so the Padres’ best arms should be available. Temperatures forecast in the 80s around first pitch should help the ball carry at Coors.
Eleven asks a fair amount from these offenses, particularly Colorado’s. I’m grabbing it, though; San Diego’s scored 41 runs during its seven-game winning streak. Sugano’s lack of strikeouts and Mize’s recent home-run trouble give me enough reason to expect scoring from both teams.
Best bet: Over 11 (-109)
Projected score: Padres 7, Rockies 5
Best bet: Rockies vs. Padres o11.0 total runs scored (-110)
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