Arizona rallied from a 7-1 deficit Sunday to almost beat the Rangers, but ultimately fell one run shy. San Diego’s subsequent win pushed the Diamondbacks out 2.5 games behind the final wild-card spot, with 12 games remaining on their calendar. Miami comes to the desert after taking two of three from the Dodgers. And while those two wins at least give the Marlins something encouraging to take into this road trip, this’ll be theater mostly for Arizona’s October dreams. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Miami Marlins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Sandy Alcantara’s recent struggles have me increasingly concerned about his ability to finish hitters. He’s allowed 15 earned runs across his last 16.1 innings, striking out six, walking six. Against the Mets on Tuesday, he recorded just one strikeout while allowing three nukes in 4.1 innings. He’s also already reached 200 innings this season.
Arizona should be gameplanning to attack in Alcantara’s four-seamer. Opponents have slugged .559 against it, with 49% hard contact and a .551 xSLG underneath the hood. His sinker and changeup have been more effective, so it’s especially important he establish those pitches. Nolan Arenado has hit .303 with four home runs over his last 10 games and will look to stay hot against Sandy. Would not surprise me if he connected on a fastball he could lift, rattle Alcantara altogether.
Corbin Burnes had a mighty fine first game back, when he threw 57 pitches across three scoreless innings in his return from Tommy John surgery. His cutter, however, averaged 92.7 mph, down from 94.1 last season, and he finished with two strikeouts and two walks. It’ll likely be another short start as he builds his workload. Miami has been getting on base enough to make those early innings demanding all the same, with Otto Lopez carrying a .500 OBP over his last 10 games. During this stretch, the Marlins have collected 30 extra-base hits and slugged .422.
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Arizona does have capable relief pitching to follow Burnes. Taylor Clarke carries a 2.49 ERA, and Brandyn Garcia sits at 2.03; Sunday required just 16 and seven pitches from them. Those modest pitch counts should help after they covered 2.2 innings between them. Miami needed four relief innings, including 37 pitches from Victor Vodnik, before traveling west. I’d expect Arizona to have the better bullpen options available.
All said, I’m taking over eight at -108. Arizona’s bullpen makes this a closer decision, but Alcantara’s recent command gives the Diamondbacks a chance to score early. Miami’s recent extra-base hitting should contribute against a pitching staff expecting another short appearance from Burnes. I have both offenses reaching four runs, with Arizona doing just enough to win it late and keep churning toward October
Best bet: Over 8 runs (-108)
Projected score: Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 4
Best bet: Rockies vs. Padres o11.0 total runs scored (-110)
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