In the afternoon portion of the Week 1 NFL slate, the Miami Dolphins will be facing off with the Las Vegas Raiders. Expectations are not particularly high for either side entering this season, with this largely a transition year for both franchises.
Jeff Hafley took over as head coach of the Dolphins this offseason, and the Tua Tagovailoa era at quarterback has officially ended. For the Raiders, Fernando Mendoza was selected with the first pick in the draft, and his availability will be a storyline to note all season under new head coach Klint Kubiak. But the results count in the wins-and-losses column nonetheless, and both teams will look to bring their best effort in the 2026 season opener.
Looking at the odds, the Raiders enter as three-point favorites with -170 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dolphins are +142 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 40.5 points.
Dolphins vs. Raiders prediction, preview
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins have not won a playoff game since 2020 and are coming off back-to-back losing seasons, which ended the Mike McDaniel era. Jeff Hafley will take over in his first head coaching opportunity at the NFL level, and last served as defensive coordinator of the Packers after spending plenty of time at the collegiate level.
Malik Willis showed some promise in the backup quarterback role in Green Bay and will get his first true chance to be a quarterback. De’Von Achane returns at running back, eager to build off his 1,838 total scrimmage yards last year and 12 total touchdowns. Achane is expected to be the focal point of the offense with the wide receiver unproven and lacking overall talent. Three of the top wide receiver options are rookies, and there are nine new starters across the offense and defense compared to last year.
This could be viewed as a positive or negative, considering Miami finished last year ranking 25th in scoring, 26th in yards, 24th in opponent points allowed, and 22nd in yards conceded. Jordyn Brooks is solid at the linebacker spot, while Chop Robinson and Zach Sieler will play key roles on the line. They also added Josh Uche and Zayne Anderson in the offseason, but this unit shouldn’t be expected to finish near the league’s best.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders attempted to jumpstart a return to relevancy last year by hiring Pete Carroll and bringing in Geno Smith as head coach. Las Vegas finished 3-14, leading to Smith suiting up for the Jets this year and Carroll taking in this NFL season from his couch like the rest of us. The organization has not made the playoffs since 2021 and has won seven combined games across the past two seasons. Klint Kubiak was hired as head coach after last serving as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator.
Kirk Cousins will serve as the opening week starter at the quarterback position for the Raiders. It is not clear how long this will last, as Heisman winner and first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza will wait behind him and could be slid into action at some point when the moment is right. Ashton Jeanty will likely be the foundation of the offense regardless, looking to build off his 1,321 total yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. Las Vegas’ outlook did take a major hit following the news that Brock Bowers needed meniscus surgery and will be sidelined to start the season. The Raiders also added to the offensive line and will look to improve after last year’s league-worst scoring production.
Defensively, the Raiders ranked 25th in opponent points allowed and 14th in yards conceded last year. After the Ravens backtracked on the initial trade agreement, Maxx Crosby will return to the organization and be ready to make a major impact. Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean will make major impacts at the linebacker positions as well.
Dolphins vs. Raiders pick, best bet
This likely isn’t a matchup that will get much screen time on NFL RedZone. Both teams are flawed and have plenty to figure out as the season gets rolling. My lean is toward the game total remaining under, and I expect it to largely look like a chore for either side to move the ball consistently. Four consecutive season openers have gone under for the Raiders, while the game total has remained under in five of the last six season openers for the Dolphins. Concerns about both teams’ defensive outlook keep me from feeling fully bullish, but each roster lacks the offensive talent that is largely the NFL standard.
But I am backing the Raiders to get the win at home and cover the three-point spread. There is just not enough talent on the offensive side of the ball for the Dolphins, and Achane should face a loaded box on just about an every-play basis. Willis has shown some positive flashes, but he has no proven sample size to lead an offense, and he doesn’t have much to lean on here. With a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new teammates, I expect some growing pains.
The Raiders’ roster is far from perfect, but Kirk Cousins has a much more proven track record at quarterback, and Atlanta went 5-3 in the games he started last year. Miami has a vulnerable secondary that he will be able to pick apart, even without Bowers on the field. Jeanty is the most talented offensive player on either side of the ball and will see plenty of chances with the ball. While the execution still has to occur on the field, the vision for this being a respectable defensive unit is clear.
Miami has lost 16 of their last 17 games as underdogs against AFC opponents, and they have failed to cover the spread in five of the last six of these matchups. Las Vegas has also covered five of their last six games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
Buckle up for some sloppy football and a narrow Raiders win in what should largely be a boring football game.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112)
Projected score: Raiders 17, Dolphins 9.
