The first Sunday of this NFL season brings us a matchup between two AFC playoff teams from last year. The Buffalo Bills are traveling to face the Houston Texans in what promises to be a star-studded affair. We’ve got a whole bunch of enticing player props to dig into for this showdown.
Buffalo is a 1.5-point road favorite with -118 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Houston is a -102 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 44.5 points.
Let’s dive into the top player prop bets for Sunday’s clash between the Bills and the Texans.
Bills vs. Texans NFL Player Prop Bets
David Montgomery 60+ Rushing Yards (+109)
Running back feels like the most volatile position in the sport year to year. Few are more consistent than David Montgomery, who has piled up 150+ carries in each of the first seven seasons of his career. Now the 29-year-old is looking to make a strong first impression with the Texans, and he lucked into a great matchup to start with.
Last season, the Buffalo Bills’ defense ranked 28th in total rushing yards allowed and 30th in opponent yards per carry. Teams were comfortable running up the middle against the Bills, and they did little to address it this offseason. Houston has no problem establishing the run, ranking in the top half of rushing attempts this past season despite a paltry 3.9 yards per carry mark.
Montgomery, who averaged 4.5 yards per tote as a Lion, should put up an efficient afternoon against the Bills while they attempt to protect C.J. Stroud from their excellent secondary. Count on a strong debut for Houston’s new RB1.
C.J. Stroud Under 31.5 Total Passing Attempts (-108)
Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. If David Montgomery gets rolling on the ground, that means C.J. Stroud will be taking a back seat in Houston’s offense.
This is nothing new for Stroud. He only cleared 31.5 pass attempts in five of his 14 starts last season despite Houston’s subpar running game. Now that David Montgomery is poised to be the bellcow with Woody Marks behind him, there’s good reason to believe Stroud’s low volume will only decrease.
A matchup with the Bills only reinforces this notion. While Buffalo was weak in the run, they were excellent as a pass defense; the Bills ranked fifth in net yards per attempt, pulling in 13 interceptions compared to 19 touchdowns. And since their run defense was so bad, the volume was nonexistent; Buffalo faced only 27.3 pass attempts per game, the second-fewest in the league. This game may be a bit of a shootout, but the Texans won’t abandon their run game, even if it’s somehow ineffective against this leaky front seven. Stroud shouldn’t post big numbers here, regardless of the game script.
