With 70 newcomers at North Texas, new head coach Neal Brown already had enough transition to endure and teaching to do, both before his home debut against UNLV. Now he’ll move BJ Allen Jr. from safety and nickel to outside corner because Caden Jenkins, Zach Johnson, and Chase Canada won’t play. Brown returns none of the starters from last year’s 12-win team. He’s barely introduced this defense, and already has to rearrange it. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the North Texas Mean Green and the UNLV Rebels.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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North Texas vs. UNLV prediction, preview
UNLV should keep handing Jai’Den Thomas the ball until North Texas sends another defender to tackle him. Thomas has rushed for 187 yards at 5.8 per carry this season, and those replacement corners are at some point going to get exposed on play action. Eventually, Brown may have to borrow a safety from the coverage. Jackson Arnold, who has rushed for three touchdowns himself, is enough of a dual threat at QB that he’ll make extra defenders hesitate before throwing behind them.
Arnold still needs his Rebels blockers to hold up. For all the encouragement in his first two passing performances (407 yards, no interceptions), UNLV has allowed seven sacks and converted only 10 of 30 third downs. The Rebels average a respectable 5.9 yards per play, so I’m reluctant to ask Arnold to chase the deep play. Thomas can most certainly gain enough on the ground to make repeated, scaleable, ordinary completions a winning gameplan. UNLV would happily spend the afternoon watching Arnold take those throws.
North Texas should complete some of its own manageable passes. Tayven Jackson went 22-of-28 against Indiana, even as the Hoosiers beat the Mean Green 52-16. Jahiem White rushed for 61 yards in that game, too. Against UNLV’s defense, White interests me particularly: The Rebels have allowed a bloated 4.7 yards per carry so far this year. UNT can run White on first down, shorten Jackson’s next throw, and keep their own depleted secondary on the sideline for a few more plays, a few more precious minutes.
UNLV vs. North Texas pick, best bet
UNLV has, admittedly, defended much better inside the 20, only conceding one touchdown in six opposing red-zone visits. They also have six red zone sacks this season. I expect Jahiem White to help North Texas finish more of those drives than the Rebels’ first two opponents did. This is also another long road trip after just having trekked to Hawaii, and that gives me further reason to project UNT some touchdowns here. Jackson Arnold may have to keep answering score-for-score throughout the fourth quarter.
At even money, I’ll lay 3.5 with UNLV. I trust Thomas to force North Texas to pull a defender toward the line, which should open Jackson Arnold to find whichever receiver that breaks a route over the top. The glaring cornerback problem is going to be what’ll do North Texas in here, even though their offense will surely score, too. I have the Rebels winning 31-24, with Thomas repeatedly making North Texas choose which part of its defense he can sacrifice to load the box.
Best bet: UNLV -3.5 (+100)
Projected score: UNLV 31, North Texas 24
Best Bet: UNLV -3.5 (+100) at North Texas
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