As I melt from the Los Angeles sun, your DraftKings Son shakes off the perspiration and digs into Week 1. Fun! Fun! Fun! But it’ll all be worth it if someone stuns and exclaims to the world, “I won!” on Monday. After the slate has been played and the DK app notifies you that you’ve been paid, know that you truly slayed.
Now, if the Wednesday and Thursday games told us anything, it’s that things can be in complete disarray. Whether it be an injury here or poor preparation there, don’t fret and start pulling out your hair. Just remember that all you can do is prepare, for it truly is any given Sunday. I know it’s an annoying cliché, but nothing we can do once the referee blows the whistle and the games are underway.
We’ve got 12 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, five games have a spread of three points or less. There are no double-digit favorites, but the Chargers are -9.5 over the Cardinals. Six games have a total of at least 45 points, with Tampa Bay and Cincinnati having the highest at 50.5 points. The lowest total is the Jets-Titans game at 38.5 points. There are three home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,900) – The big bugaboo for Burrow is health, but when he’s out there, he often produces a ton of fantasy goodies. He’s gone over 30 FPTS 13 times in his career, with four performances over 40 FPTS. It helps that he has a ton of weapons at his disposal — Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown out of the backfield — and a favorable matchup. Tampa Bay is very good at stopping the run, so the path of least resistance is through the air, and that is the path that most offenses choose to saunter down. Last season, the Buccaneers allowed the sixth-most passing yards and sixth-most touchdowns while pressuring the quarterback at the eighth-lowest rate. This game has the highest total on the slate, and there’s a strong chance that the Buccaneers offense will succeed, which could make this a back-and-forth affair.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($6,800), Jalen Hurts ($6,600), Caleb Williams ($6,300)
Value
Cooper Rush, Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,000) – With Tua Tagovailoa ruled out late in the week, Rush becomes a free square because he’s priced at the minimum. Rush went undrafted in 2017, but he’s been stuck in the league as a backup for eight seasons. He’s 32 years old, so he shouldn’t be overwhelmed with this opportunity. He’s made 16 career starts and completed 61.1% of his passes for 3,766 yards, 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The career sack rate is 4.03%, and the yards per attempt is 6.3. Rush has surpassed 20 FPTS three times in his career. The ownership will likely be high, so zigging in larger-field tournaments will probably be the way to go.
Other Options – Baker Mayfield ($5,900), Tyler Shough ($5,600), Jacoby Brissett ($5,100)
Running Back
Stud
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals ($6,800) – There was talk over the offseason about a hot-hand approach at running back for the Chargers. That may well be the case, but that doesn’t mean Hampton still can’t go bonkers. Both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane would go nuts together. I’m a true believer in Mike McDaniel and his offense, remembering what he did for the Dolphins a few years back. How he attacks all levels of the defense with plenty of pre-snap motion provides so many seams and alleys in the run game. Los Angeles is the biggest favorite on the slate at 9.5 points, so the game script should favor the ground game. That said, the Cardinals have a potent offense and could certainly push the Chargers to stay aggressive. The total for this game is a swollen 47.5 points.
Other Options – Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000), Bijan Robinson ($7,700), Chase Brown ($7,100), Saquon Barkley ($6,900), Derrick Henry ($6,700), Ashton Jeanty ($6,600), D’Andre Swift ($6,100)
Value
David Montgomery, Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills ($6,000) – Buffalo had one of the poorest run defenses in the NFL last season, allowing the fifth-most yards, the third-most yards per carry, and the most rushing touchdowns. Now, the defense will be led by Jim Leonard, who will be changing the front to a 3-4 hybrid, so I’d expect some improvement. That said, it will likely take some time for things to gel. The offensive line is rated 31st per PFF, so that’s no good, but the Texans do have a more-than-competent quarterback with weapons in the passing game to keep defenses honest. In addition, Houston wants to ground-and-pound defenses into submission, and their elite defense could make that possible. Woody Marks could be an issue, but I think Montgomery gets the high-value touches.
Other Options – Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,900), Bucky Irving ($5,700), Chubba Hubbard ($5,500), Jordan Mason ($5,400), Jaylen Warren ($5,400), Kenny Gainwell ($5,200), Rachaad White ($5,200), MarShawn Lloyd ($4,800), Keaton Mitchell ($4,800), Mike Washington Jr. ($4,600)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,800) – Well, if I like Burrow at quarterback, I have to like his number one receiver. This game has the highest total on the slate and could be a back-and-forth affair. Chase led the league with 185 targets last season despite missing a game. He’s cleared 30 FPTS 16 times in his career, including six performances over 40 and three in the 50s. Chase has the highest floor/ceiling combo at the position.
Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,500), Justin Jefferson ($7,300), Chris Olave ($6,700), DeVonta Smith ($6,600), Drake London ($6,500), Zay Flowers ($6,400), Tee Higgins ($6,300), Emeka Egbuka ($6,200)
Value
Devaughn Vele, New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions ($3,500) – With Jordyn Tyson injured, Vele will likely be thrust into a prominent role. This will be his third year in the league; he started seven games last season, hauling in 25 of 39 targets for 293 yards and two touchdowns. He performed well in the offseason, and the Lions are implied to score the second-most points of the weekend with 28.25. That would mean the Saints will have to go to the air often to keep pace, and Tyler Shough performed well in his rookie campaign last season.
Other Options – Jameson Williams ($6,000), Ladd McConkey ($5,900), Parker Washington ($5,600), Luther Burden III ($5,500), Michael Wilson ($5,300), Chris Godwin Jr. ($5,200), Michael Pittman Jr. ($4,900), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,800), Quentin Johnston ($4,700), Tre’ Harris ($3,800)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers ($6,800) – McBride’s 169 targets last season were the third-most among all players, only behind Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown. His 11 touchdowns were tied for the second-most. Jacoby Brissett will likely have to fling the ball all over the field in this one, as the Chargers will likely score a ton of points. There’s some uncertainty because the offense is under new stewardship, but Mike LaFleur knows the system and was the Rams OC for the last three seasons, so there’s a chance this offense could be better.
Other Options – Colston Loveland ($5,300), Kyle Pitts Sr. ($4,700), Sam LaPorta ($4,400), Dallas Goedert ($4,100)
Value
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins ($2,900) – With Brock Bowers out, Mayer will be the number one tight end. Kirk Cousins has been very friendly to tight ends in his career, and the Raiders are devoid of potent wide receivers. The Dolphins defense is devoid of talent, so there should be plenty of pitch-and-catch opportunities. Let’s not forget Mayer was selected in the second round of the 2023 draft, so he has the pedigree and can play.
Other Options – Mark Andrews ($3,900), Juwan Johnson ($3,700), TJ Hockenson ($3,300), Pat Freiermuth ($3,400), Darnell Washington ($3,000)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Jaguars DST vs. Cleveland Browns ($3,400) – Deshaun Watson at quarterback? Say no more. Jacksonville forced 31 turnovers and 22 interceptions last season, both the second-most in the NFL. While the unit only racked up 32 sacks, the hurry rate was eighth-highest in the league. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that the Jaguars will improve vastly in the sack department.
Other Options – Eagles DST ($3,200)
Value
Ravens DST at Indianapolis Colts ($3,000) – Baltimore was 30th in sacks and 28th in pressure rate last season. So, all they did in the offseason was acquire Trey Hendrickson, one of the premium sack artists who racked up 17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024. The defense is loaded at all three levels, and the team shored up its major weakness. I have concerns about the Colts offense with Daniel Jones. There’s tape on him now, and it may take some time for him to fully recover from his Achilles injury.
Other Options – Browns DST ($2,100)
