The NFL is back, baby! The 2026 regular season kicked off with two games earlier in the week, building up to the full Sunday slate to really get Week 1 going. It’s probably not the biggest game on most fans’ radars, but it’s quite possible that the meeting between the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions winds up being one of the best of the day.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Saints vs. Lions in NFL Week 1 on Sunday.
Saints vs. Lions prediction, preview
What makes this matchup a dark-horse candidate for game of the week? The answer is pretty simple. The Saints’ offense is on the upswing, mirroring the trajectory of the franchise itself heading into year two under Kellen Moore. On the opposite sideline, the Lions should have a top-five attack once again but lack much in the way of a defense, meaning an opponent like this one may be able to hang around.
New Orleans finished with a 6-11 record in 2025, hardly a great record for the first year under one of the most-hyped hirings at head coach of that year’s cycle. However, there’s important context to consider. The Saints had just drafted Tyler Shough in the second round and started Spencer Rattler over the first half of the season, they possessed virtually no run game behind an aging Alvin Kamara (especially once he went down with an injury), and the offense was somewhat devoid of standout weapons beyond Chris Olave. They won just one game over the first five weeks, but tallied their other five victories once Shough took over under center, with four of those coming in their last five games. Now, they’ve added Travis Etienne in the backfield and Shough is embedded as the starter with a few new names in the receiver room, though first-round pick Jordyn Tyson is on IR for the moment. Moore and his squad will be looking to improve and get above the .500 mark this season, and once this group is at full strength, there’s a real case for the offensive upside to overcome an average-at-best defense to win some games.
Looking toward Detroit, 2025 was a season to forget at just 9-8 en route to a last-place finish in a loaded NFC North. To be fair, competing in that division proves extremely difficult, but the outlook this coming year doesn’t appear significantly more positive. Yes, the Lions return virtually the entire core of standout weapons – Jared Goff at quarterback, Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams at receiver, plus Sam LaPorta at tight end. The offense sputtered over the first half last season but should resemble its more usual high-end self in 2026, though Drew Petzing wasn’t the most inspired hire the franchise could’ve made at offensive coordinator. The defense is once again the problem, though. Detroit ranked in the back half of the NFL with 24.3 PPG allowed last season and are missing standout safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, both of whom are on the PUP List, while Payton Turner and Damone Clark are on IR in the front seven. There’s still talent like Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell, sure. But losing the aforementioned players to injuries along with Terrion Arnold, who was cut due to alleged off-field concerns, leaves the unit in desperate shape.
Saints vs. Lions pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lions as a -7 favorite against the spread with -340 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Saints are a +270 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 49.5 combined points.
This is one of the totals of the week, which is certainly understandable given the offensive talent on paper. Honestly, there’s a chance that Detroit just blasts its opponent and comes close to the 40-point mark alone, assuming the offensive core is firing from the jump here. Now, that is a ceiling outcome, so don’t expect it – particularly given that the offensive line is way more patchwork than it typically gets credit for in discussions by the general public. Chase Young and Carl Granderson could give some trouble to the Lions’ front, but the New Orleans pass defense does remain suspect. The same goes for Detroit, though, which could get carved up by the Shough-Olave pairing if the young quarterback doesn’t fall short against a blitz-heavy defense – facing down extra rushers was arguably his biggest weakness as a rookie. To be fair, Shough was much better as a rookie than he gets credit for and truly popped down the stretch run, even if his touchdown numbers weren’t super impressive.
With the Lions surely desperate to score this year given the defensive situation and the Saints’ offense poised for growth thanks to the addition of Etienne and another full offseason for Shough under Moore’s tutelage, this is another matchup in which I like the over. It’s a lofty total, but there are significant defensive shortcomings on either side and one of the attacks is provably elite, so I’m expecting a high-scoring finish in which the Lions may actually be threatened.
