Nevada ran for 323 yards against Western Kentucky, scored seven touchdowns, and gave Jeff Choate a 49-14 win to begin his third season. An encouraging Saturday, certainly. His former program’s pulling into town with the hopes of absolutely obliterating him: Montana State rolls into Reno with an FCS national championship and 16 consecutive wins, including two this season by a combined score of 105-24. The swagger of those who level up—you know? Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Montana State Bobcats and the Nevada Wolf Pack.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Montana State vs. Nevada prediction, preview
Dominic Kelley ripped off 152 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Nevada’s opener, although his 72-yard score eats up a lot of that entire slash line. Having said that, I’m encouraged by Herschel Turner’s contribution alongside him (52 yards on 11 carries). When a second back can average 4.7 yards per carry, that shows some total offensive dominance. Nevada will need to move the chains between breakaways, especially when Montana State starts tackling Kelley before he reaches the second level.
The Bobcats allowed just 2.3 yards per rush against Utah Tech and Butler, despite replacing every starting defensive lineman from their FCS championship team. Nevada’s offensive line will most surely test those replacements more severely. Whether its blockers can consistently displace this Bobcats front is going to be the matchup’s prowder keg. Quarterback Carter Jones only had time to throw 15 passes last week. He completed nine, including two touchdowns, but also threw an interception. I’d prefer Nevada keep handing off while he develops some consistency. Efficient running—this is all we ask for.
Montana State already has the efficiency we want, just at quarterback. Justin Lamson has completed 74% of his passes for 499 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions this season. Under his command, the Bobcats offense has converted 13 of 20 third downs (65%). The opponents are underwhelming, sure, but dismissing the production altogether would be folly. Montana State’s defense should force Jones into hurried throws, then let Lamson extend the next drive. And voila! Bobcats in control.
Nevada vs. Montana State pick, best bet
Nevada’s defense gives me reason to expect stout resistance to Bobcat domination tonight. Western Kentucky ran 82 plays and, averaged 4.48 yards per snap, and converted just six of 17 third downs (35.3%). The Wolf Pack also sacked WKU QBs three times. Those stops are crucial when assessing a blowout that included gains of 72 and 73 yards: even after the quick scores sent Nevada’s defense back onto the field, it kept limiting the next possession.
I’m taking Nevada +4 (-105), with some ML sprinkles here and there; my final score has the Wolf Pack winning 27-24. Lamson will complete passes. I expect Nevada to tackle well enough afterward to keep this within one possession.
Best bet: Nevada +4 (-105)
Projected score: Nevada 27, Montana State 24
Best Bet: Nevada +4 (-105) vs. Montana State
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