Of all the damage LSU inflicted in its 51-10 win over Clemson, I keep coming back to the ordinary running plays the Tigers ran to wild success. Lane Kiffin’s offense rushed for 309 yards without a carry longer than 18. Dilin Jones gained 113 on 23 attempts, never once lost yardage, and Sam Leavitt ran for another 113. Louisiana Tech has to tackle both Saturday, a task of defensive toughness for which its own 80-point opener did little to prepare the team for. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the LSU Tigers and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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LSU vs. LA Tech prediction, preview
Tech certainly found something worth pursuing with QB Blake Baker and WR Jalen Mickens. Their first connection against Northwestern State went 75 yards for a touchdown; by halftime, Baker had thrown for 232 yards on just 14 attempts. Mickens caught three passes for 133. I like the aggression in yards per target, there, but sustaining that kind of success against LSU will require pass protection I’m not sure LA Tech has. Clemson’s offensive line just surrendered four sacks to the Tigers last week.
And, as always, we know protection becomes a much less forgiving business when the defense knows a throw is coming. Clemson converted only once in 13 third-down attempts, and averaged 3.02 yards across its 48 total offensive. Tech can change quarterbacks to keep LSU on their toes; they’ll at some point run Trey Kukuk, who rushed for more than 600 yards last season. But LSU allowed only 1.5 yards per carry last weekend. Still, I’d be probing with Kukuk early, just to see what happens. Leaving Baker to repeatedly throw for first downs, especially early, sets up for a long evening.
LSU will spend most of their efforts committed to violently finishing their own drives. Last season, Tech kept opponents scoreless on 28.2% of their red-zone possessions, the best rate in Conference USA. I hesitate to carry that percentage forward with only three returning defenders who started at least four games. Nevertheless, 13 tackles for loss against Northwestern State suggest this group can disrupt a few plays, even at the nationally-ranked level. One well-timed TFL could turn a touchdown opportunity into a field-goal attempt.
LA Tech vs. LSU pick, best bet
Every LSU offensive touchdown against Clemson required at least six plays. There were opportunities to stop those drives, however seldom Clemson took them. Jordan Ross’s interception return offered no such opportunity: seven points, straight onto the scoreboard. Another defensive touchdown would make this uncomfortable, as would Baker repeatedly turning the ball over near his own end zone. He avoided interceptions in the opener; I’d settle for punts here.
Under 55.5 (-108) is my pick, with LSU winning 42-10. I expect Jones to keep earning carries and Tech to spend too many possessions trying to recover from unsuccessful early downs. Kiffin can have another thoroughly satisfying bludgeoning of an offensive afternoon. I’m less convinced Baker gets enough time to contribute much to the total.
Best bet: Under 55.5 (-108)
Projected score: LSU 42, Louisiana Tech 10
Best Bet: LSU vs. Louisiana Tech u55.5 total points (-110)
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