Louisville shut Kentucky out to end last season. Will Stein has coached one game since taking over, and already his quarterback has thrown four touchdowns. Kenny Minchey passed for 301 yards in a 45-13 win over Youngstown State; now he faces Alabama, whose own new starter, Keelon Russell, racked up 342 scrimmage yards against East Carolina. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Kentucky vs. Alabama prediction, preview
Minchey completed passes to nine receivers, Kentucky scored on its first five possessions, and the line allowed no sacks. Give Kentucky some credit for spreading the rock around so effectively, even against Youngstown State. Alabama can most certainly cover Minchey’s first read without necessarily blowing up the play, provided Kentucky’s linemen buy their QB another second. Kentucky went 5-7 last season, but Stein’s potential has already persuaded me to reconsider how readily opponents might disrupt its passing game. The offense in blue should still look quite crisp today.
Unless, of course, Alabama’s defense totally takes over. The Tide held East Carolina to two (2[!]) net rushing yards and five first downs. They held the Pirates to 41 offensive plays while running 81 themselves. Last season, Alabama allowed only 4.9 yards per play and a mere 19.2 points per game. If Kentucky repeatedly fails on third down, their offense can squander a possession or two and still have plenty of chances to score.
I’d have a much easier time trusting Alabama to pull away if its backs had run more effectively last season (3.4 yards per carry), or its line hadn’t allowed 32 sacks. Alabama listed starting guard Michael Carroll as doubtful Thursday, and William Sanders has also been managing an oblique issue. Russell rushed for 86 yards against ECU. Asking him to compensate for the blocking again, in his first road start, seems an ambitious way to win by double digits.
Alabama vs. Kentucky pick, best bet
Kentucky expects cornerbacks Terhyon Nichols and Hasaan Sykes back after both missed the opener, so Russell should face more experienced coverage while deciding whether to throw or run. Tackle Malachi Wood also came off the injury report before this writing.. Kentucky held Youngstown State to 2.1 yards per carry; I’m encouraged by that, although Alabama will give those defenders considerably harder tackles to make. Stein needs his front to force passing downs without repeatedly leaving Russell room to scramble.
I’ll take Kentucky +10.5 at -122. Alabama’s defense can win this game, and Russell can punish Kentucky whenever its pass rush loses track of him. I still expect Minchey to lead enough touchdown drives to make that spread uncomfortable for the favorite. With nine receivers already catching passes for Stein, I’m willing to trust the quarterback to find a few more Saturday. Alabama, 31-24.
Best bet: Kentucky +10.5 (-122)
Projected score: Alabama 31, Kentucky 24
Best Bet: Kentucky +10.5 (-120) vs. Alabama
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