Trey Holly ran for 99 yards and two touchdowns for Southern last week when the Jaguars beat Kentucky State 34-15, thus securing Marshall Faulk his first head-coaching win with the Jaguars. Houston presents a considerably harder assignment for a program that went 2-10 last season. The Cougars won 10 games, then opened this season by gaining 533 yards against Oregon State. Holly won’t get many afternoons like last Saturday here. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Houston Cougars and the Southern Jaguars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Houston vs. Southern prediction, preview
Cougs QB Conner Weigman threw for 305 yards against Oregon State, with Amare Thomas racking up yardage at a clip of 133 and Patrick Overmyer adding 84. Makhi Hughes and Re’Shaun Sanford combined for 173 rushing yards, and both scored. Southern has to balance tackling those backs while committing enough defenders to Thomas. I expect Houston to run effectively enough that Weigman can pick his good moments when to attack downfield. This’ll make Southern’s own possessions particularly high-stakes.
In which case, I’d get Christian Johnson throwing on first down. Oregon State passed for 376 yards against Houston while rushing for only 26; asking Trey Holly to repeatedly run through this front seems an unnecessarily difficult way to begin a drive. Johnson, however, has thrown for 374 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception through two games. He hasn’t faced defenders of Houston’s caliber, but he can complete enough early throws to leave Holly shorter distances on the next handoff. That’s a recipe that might indeed cook.
However, Southern has squandered too many of those good chances already, converting on just 29.6% of third downs and averaging a disgusting 32.3 net yards per punt. That’s where I’d worry about Houston scoring in bunches. Weigman may barely have to cross midfield before attacking the end zone.
Southern vs. Houston pick, best bet
The Jaguars have defended third down better themselves, allowing just seven conversions in 29 attempts while recording six sacks. They earned those numbers against Alabama State and Division II Kentucky State, so I expect Weigman and his Cougs to convert with ease. Houston averaged 29.1 points and 5.5 yards per play last season.
Still, I’m taking Southern +51.5. The number’s too fat. Johnson will need to complete enough passes to extend occasional drives in order to cover, and Holly can help finish them once Houston has to respect the throw. I expect the Cougars to score throughout, with Hughes and Sanford doing much of the rushing. Southern can still make them drive the field often enough to prevent an extraordinary margin. I have Houston winning 49-10, with the Jaguars contributing points and consuming some clock themselves.
Best bet: Southern +51.5 (-108)
Projected score: Houston 49, Southern 10
Best Bet: Southern +51.5 (-110) at Houston
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