Fresno State lost 39-0 at USC, but I’d hesitate to judge too-harshly QB Jayden Mandal until his line gives him time to throw. The Bulldogs started seven offensive players for the first time, including both guards and the center. They now host Sacramento State, who should start Jackson Sharman again while Carson Conklin, who spent last season at Fresno, recovers from a throwing-arm injury. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Sacramento State Hornets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Fresno State vs. Sacramento State prediction, preview
USC sacked Mandal five times in 15 pass attempts last week. The run game offered little relief, with Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson combining for just 36 yards on 14 carries. Both backs should run more successfully against Sacramento State, provided Fresno’s new linemen coordinate their blocking assignments better than last week. After converting only two of 10 third downs last week, the Bulldogs could help Mandal considerably by asking him to throw for conversions of four yards instead of, say, eight.
Getting closer to the end zone hasn’t necessarily solved Fresno’s problems, either. Last year’s team won nine games while scoring touchdowns on just 22 of 49 red-zone visits (44.9%) and converting 36.2% of third downs. Sacramento State has six sacks through two games against Eastern Michigan and Mississippi Valley State. Even reconciling for that lesser competition, I expect the Hornets to hurry Mandal enough to force a few punts and field goals.
Of course, Fresno’s gotta show me they can defend the pass themselves before I can get overly enthusiastic about a projected low score. USC completed 29 of 31 attempts for 412 yards against the Bulldog defense last week. Jackson Sharman just threw four touchdowns for the Hornets against Mississippi Valley State—three to Matthew Coleman, who caught six passes for 141 yards, and a longest reception of 63 yards. Fresno’s defenders need to tackle him after the shorter catches, too; making Sharman throw underneath accomplishes little if Coleman keeps running for first downs.
Sacramento State vs. Fresno State pick, best bet
I’m counting on improvement from a defense that returns most of last year’s personnel; the Bulldogs allowed 4.7 yards per play and intercepted 20 passes last season. They showed more of the same last week when they held USC to 3.8 yards per rush, despite the passing problems. That gives Fresno a chance to put Sharman in third-and-long, where I’m less willing to trust him after one start against Mississippi Valley State. He should complete some passes to Coleman. Sustaining several touchdown drives asks considerably more.
I’m taking under 44.5 (-108), with Fresno winning 27-13. Luke and Donelson should gain enough on early downs for Mandal to sustain a few scoring possessions. I still expect Fresno to settle for field goals on some of them, while its returning defenders force Sharman into enough third-down incompletions to limit Sacramento State’s touchdowns.
Best bet: Under 44.5 (-108)
Projected score: Fresno State 27, Sacramento State 13
Best Bet: Fresno State vs. Sacramento State u44.5 total points (-110)
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