Facing off as part of the Week 2 college football slate, the Duke Blue Devils will challenge the Illinois Fighting Illini. Both teams enter with a 1-0 record, with each side having fair reason for optimism and plenty of familiarity between the two head coaches.
Looking at the odds, Illinois enters as a 5.5-point favorite with -230 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Duke is +190 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 51.5 points.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 2 matchup.
Duke vs. Illinois Preview
Duke Blue Devils
Manny Diaz remains at the helm for the Duke Blue Devils, looking to build off of the program’s 9-5 record in his third season in charge. Winning the ACC championship was an impressive accolade to add, and 49% of last year’s production returned to the roster. Major exceptions include potential Heisman candidate Darian Mensah and star wide receiver Cooper Barkate, both of whom transferred to Miami. But the Blue Devils have a strong rushing attack, an identity as a program, and have won nine games in back-to-back seasons as well as three of their past four.
Duke kicked off this year with a 17-3 win over Tulane. They took a 10-0 lead into halftime before Tulane kicked through a field goal and the Blue Devils responded with a touchdown as the knockout blow. Duke tallied 381 total yards of offense, including 250 on the ground. Tulane was limited to 258 total yards of offense, including just 54 rushing yards and 2.1 per carry.
Walker Eget has stepped in at quarterback after Mensah left via the transfer portal. It was an up-and-down start for the San Jose State transfer, who completed 13 of his 26 pass attempts for 131 yards in the opener. Duke found its primary success in Nate Sheppard at running back. The second-team All-ACC member popped off the screen for 35 rush attempts, 227 yards, and two touchdowns in the opener. CJ Campbell Jr. also received 10 carries, but was only able to turn this into 25 yards. Eget will need to improve from his Duke debut, but the Blue Devils’ blueprint is to lean on their defense and running game to pick up wins.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Bret Bielema is entering his sixth season as head coach of the Fighting Illini. Illinois is looking to build off a 19-7 record over their past two seasons, including a 30-28 victory over the Tennessee Volunteers in the Music City Bowl last year. However, the program has seen plenty of roster turnover, forcing it to rebuild more than it would prefer on both the roster and the coaching staff. Even still, Bielema has earned the benefit of the doubt and kicked off this season with an opening-week victory.
Illinois kicked off the year with a 42-23 victory over UAB. The Fighting Illini struck first in the matchup and looked to take control. Still, UAB cut the lead to 14-13 right before halftime, before the Fighting Illini were able to extend it to a comfortable advantage again. UAB dominated the time of possession 41:03-18:57 and outgained Illinois 413-332. But adding the win to the column will be the only stat the Fighting Illini truly care about, and they will look to clean up their execution further this week.
Katin Houser made his debut at quarterback after spending the first four years of his collegiate career at Michigan State and East Carolina. Houser completed 13 of his 17 pass attempts for 182 yards and three touchdowns in his Illinois debut, while adding three rush attempts for 29 yards and a score. Ca’Lil Valentine headlined the rush attack with 88 yards and a score on just 11 carries, while Collin Dixon was the leading wide receiver with six receptions for 70 yards and two touchdowns.
Duke vs. Illinois Pick
These are two of just 15 programs in the country to have won nine or more games in each of the past two seasons. They faced off last season, and Illinois won 45-19. It was a 14-13 contest at halftime before the Blue Devils completely fell apart. Duke played better football down the stretch of the season than they showed in the early weeks, but plenty has changed on both sides leading into this year’s matchup. Illinois holds an all-time 2-1 series advantage, with this being just the fourth time the two programs have faced off on the football field.
While there is fair reason for optimism on the season, I am backing Duke in this matchup. Illinois struggled to slow down UAB’s attack in their Week 1 matchup. The Blazers do an excellent job of setting the pace, but Illinois’ pass rush was just about nonexistent throughout the matchup. UAB largely controlled the game, and if they had been more effective at reaching the end zone and avoided nine self-inflicted penalties, the result would have been different.
Illinois’s inability to control the line of scrimmage will be problematic against a Duke team that will lean on its running game frequently. The Blue Devils’ offensive front was excellent against Tulane and should be in line for similar production. Nate Sheppard will be the headline name on the game plan for both sides, but the star running back has looked ready for the challenge. Walker Eget will need to be more effective than he was in the season opener, but Houser has issues of his own that haven’t surfaced in the new location yet.
Buckle up for some old-school, big-boy football where Duke wins the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, paving the way to a win. You can keep the points; I am backing Duke to pull off the upset and win outright on the moneyline.
