The long countdown until NFL football has passed, and the 2026 season is officially off to the races. With a clean slate, every NFL team will be eager to show off offseason improvements and try to outperform expectations. Buckle up for our first Sunday of nonstop football as the season storylines begin to be established.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action with DraftKings Sportsbook and DFS contests. As you seek to maximize your DFS lineups, here is a look at a few players in line to outperform their price point to help give you an edge across the Sunday slate. Here’s a look at my top DFS lineup and the logic behind each selection.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
DraftKings NFL Millionaire Picks: Best DFS Plays for Week 1
Quarterback
Kyler Murray ($5,500)
I am taking a risk right out of the gate here by saving some of the budget and taking Kyler Murray at quarterback. Murray has had a disappointing few seasons, but he is in a new location with one of the league’s most quarterback-friendly systems, run by Kevin O’Connell. Minnesota’s lack of confidence in J.J. McCarthy is evident, and the decision to start Murray should say a lot about the outlook for the former 10th overall pick.
Murray has taken a major step back from when he first burst onto the scene, with his 16.4 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring last year marking the worst production of his career. Before that, he never averaged fewer than 18.7 fantasy points per game, with 20.8 per game across his career and as many as 25.4 in a season. The former first overall pick has ranked as high as sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold have each produced as starting-caliber fantasy football quarterbacks in this O’Connell system, and Murray’s ability with his legs adds a whole new dynamic. In 2020, Murray produced 9.3 fantasy points per game just with his legs.
The Vikings will face the Green Bay Packers to start this season. Green Bay had a middling defense last season and should be expected to finish in the same range this year. With all the offseason time leading into this matchup, expect a clear game plan for Murray to execute to the best of his abilities and for the Vikings to return to the offensive firepower they want to be. While this selection largely reflects prioritizing budget at other positions, I am bullish on Murray’s outlook this year and want to get ahead of it early.
Other Considerations: Jayden Daniels ($6,500), Jared Goff ($6,000), Baker Mayfield ($5,900), Jordan Love ($5,700)
Running Back
Bijan Robinson ($7,700)
The $7,700 price point for Bijan Robinson ranks third among all players and positions this week. There are plenty of questions about this Atlanta Falcons team this season, but Robinson’s caliber of talent is not one of them. The 24-year-old finished last season with an NFL-best 2,298 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns. He finished the season averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, which ranked third among all players. Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua were the only two players to outperform him.
Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out for the matchup due to an oblique injury, while Michael Penix Jr. is still recovering from his ACL tear. This leaves Cooper Rush to suit up as the opening week starter, with just 16 career starts to his name across eight years in the NFL. Any day you look at it, expect the entirety of the Falcons’ offensive attack to funnel through their star running back. There is sure to be plenty of attention on him defensively as they face off with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but given the level of touches he should be expected to get, Robinson is still a can’t-miss play. Count on a massive diet of opportunities in the screen game as well as plenty of standard rush attempts. Robinson is too talented to keep completely in check, and you should expect him to break free for a game-changing play at some point in the matchup.
Saquon Barkley ($6,900)
During the 2024 NFL season, Saquon Barkley finished as the top-performing running back and third among all position players by averaging 24.3 fantasy points per game. In his first season in Philadelphia, the three-time Pro Bowler recorded 2,005 rushing yards, 278 yards through the air, and 15 total touchdowns. Barkley took a major step back last season, finishing with 1,140 yards on the ground, 273 yards through the air, and just nine touchdowns. He averaged 15.1 points per game on DraftKings scoring, which ranked 15th among all players and 15th among running backs.
While there is fair concern about him potentially losing a step at age 29, the problems with the Eagles’ offense extended well beyond Barkley’s production. Play calling was a major problem all season, and the offensive line never got healthy. Philadelphia hired Sean Mannion to take over offensive coordinator and play-calling duties, and the offensive line had an entire offseason to recover and return to its standard. Expect clearer lanes for the star running back and a better plan to get him the ball in favorable spots. The Eagles will open up the year with a matchup against the Washington Commanders, who finished last season ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed and 20th in rushing touchdowns conceded. Especially with A.J. Brown no longer on the roster, expect the Eagles to get back to leaning on a rush-oriented identity on offense and for Barkley to return to one of the top running backs in the NFL this season.
Other Considerations: Jonathan Taylor ($7,300), Omarion Hampton ($6,800), David Montgomery ($6,000), Bucky Irving ($5,700)
Wide Receivers
Emeka Egbuka ($6,200)
It was a strange sight on Thursday night to see Mike Evans suiting up for the San Francisco 49ers. The future Hall of Famer has largely been synonymous with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, spending 12 seasons with the franchise and recording 1,000+ yards in each of the first 11 years and 108 total touchdowns. But his absence in the offense paves the way for Emeka Egbuka to take a major lead forward in his second season with the franchise. Tampa Bay showed its belief in the Ohio State product by selecting him with the 19th overall pick in last year’s draft. Egbuka finished his rookie season with 63 receptions on 127 targets for 938 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 12 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, and finished the season ranked 33rd among wide receivers.
With Evans no longer the top receiving option, expect Egbuka to make his case as the clear next WR1 for the franchise. Baker Mayfield has proven capable of leading one of the NFL’s top offenses, and his contract negotiations are settled, so this will no longer be a distraction. Tampa Bay will open up the season against the Cincinnati Bengals, who finished last year ranked 30th in points allowed and 31st in yards conceded. While they made a major effort to upgrade the unit this offseason, they have a long way to go. Expect Egbuka to be a major part of the offensive attack for the Buccaneers and have plenty of chances to make his mark on this game. Be ready for Egbuka to make a case as one of the top pass catchers in the NFL and outperform his $6,200 price point in this matchup.
Jameson Williams ($6,000)
The Detroit Lions will open up the season with a matchup against the New Orleans Saints and are eager to avenge last year’s postseason absence. This was not due to their offensive production, as Detroit finished last season ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring at 28.3 points per game. Jameson Williams was a key part of this effort, proving to be more than a gadget player and becoming a key part of their attack. The Alabama product finished with 65 receptions on 102 targets for 1,117 yards and seven touchdowns. Williams averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, which ranked 19th among all wide receivers.
While there has been plenty of hype around the New Orleans Saints’ outlook this season, they finished 6-11 last season and have a middle-of-the-pack defense. If the Lions are to view themselves as the deep playoff threat they desire to be, these are the types of games they must assert themselves in. This starts with a strong offensive performance, and Williams will play a major role in this. Williams has improved his production and earned more trust in the Lions’ offense over his four years at the NFL level, and we should expect the same this year. Count on Detroit giving him a few big-play opportunities and for his fantasy football production to outperform the $6,000 price point.
Garrett Wilson ($5,800)
Garrett Wilson has been one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL since he entered the league in 2022. The biggest problem with his production has been the Jets’ inability to get him the ball, with their revolving door of quarterbacks a key factor. While it is a low bar, Geno Smith will return to the franchise where he started his career. Smith has since found his NFL footing, throwing for 3,000+ yards in each of the past four seasons with 90 touchdowns across that stretch. He provides a level of competence at the position that players like Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, Justin Fields, and Brady Cook have been unable to provide.
Even amid this quarterback uncertainty, Wilson has tallied 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his first three seasons in the league. This streak ended last year when his season was limited to just seven games because of right knee issues. The Ohio State product tallied 36 receptions for 395 yards and four scores across the seven games he did play. He averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, which still ranked 16th among wide receivers last season. This was also a step back from the 15.6 points per game he averaged last year. With an improved quarterback and a crucial season for the Jets, expect Wilson to be heavily involved in the offensive attack all season. New York will kick off the year with a matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who have plenty of issues and pressure of their own. Tennessee finished last season ranked 28th in opponent points per game, 21st in total yards allowed, 23rd in passing yards conceded, and 23rd in passing touchdowns yielded. Look for Wilson to build early chemistry with Smith and for his production to reflect his status as one of the NFL’s top wide receivers.
Other Considerations: DeVonta Smith ($6,600), Christian Watson ($5,900), Alec Pierce ($5,700), Jayden Reed ($4,900)
Tight End
Tyler Warren ($4,900)
The Indianapolis Colts were shaping up to be one of the best stories in the NFL last season, with an 8-2 start to the season in which Daniel Jones found his footing as the starting quarterback. Unfortunately, Jones suffered a torn Achilles and ended his season early, and the organization closed with seven straight losses to miss the playoffs. Jones is back healthy this season and will look to lean on Tyler Warren the same way he did last year. The Colts showed their belief in the tight end by selecting him with the 14th overall pick in last year’s draft. Warren held up his end of the bargain by recording 76 receptions for 817 yards and four touchdowns, as well as one score on the ground. The Penn State product earned Pro Bowl recognition in his first season in the league.
From a fantasy football perspective, Warren finished the year as the 11th-ranked tight end averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game. However, he averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game across the 10 matchups before Jones’ injury, which would have slotted him as TE5 and TE2 among players at the position to play more than 12 games. The Colts will be eager to lean on the same blueprint they established last year for success. Warren is a dynamic offensive talent who can be moved all over the field and will be a key part of the attack. Expect Indianapolis to get him involved at a high rate and for Warren to continue his journey to establishing himself as one of the top tight ends in football as the Colts kick off the season against the Ravens.
Other Considerations: Trey McBride ($6,800), Colston Loveland ($5,300), Harold Fannin Jr. ($4,200)
Flex
Dontayvion Wicks ($4,100)
The absence of A.J. Brown in the Eagles’ passing attack leaves some major shoes to fill in Philadelphia. Despite his unhappiness, Brown had tallied 1,000+ receiving yards in all four seasons with the team and recorded 32 touchdowns across this stretch. The Eagles are largely leaning on a committee approach to replace his talents, but Dontayvion Wicks is a key part of this effort. Philadelphia handed the former Packers standout a notable $12.5 million deal, and it will ask him to play a major role in the offense. Wicks has largely been used in a rotational role in Green Bay, never recording more than 54% of offensive snaps in a season and being on the field for just 47% of those opportunities in two of the three seasons.
Even so, Wicks has pulled in 1,328 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns since entering the league. He has finished with fantasy football averages of 8.1, 6.5, and 5.4 across these seasons. Philadelphia has gambled that he can be more effective in a bigger role, and early training camp reports have been extremely encouraging. While DeVonta Smith will headline the wide receiver production, Wicks has a bigger frame and should be expected to play a key role in their red zone packages. Facing a Commanders defense that ranked 28th in receiving yards allowed and 29th in receiving touchdowns conceded, look for Wicks to make an early mark with his new teammates.
Defense & Special Teams
Las Vegas Raiders ($2,900)
Sometimes the matchup matters more than talent when looking at the fantasy football outlook at defense. The Las Vegas Raiders finished last year ranking 25th in opponent points allowed, 14th in total rushing yards allowed, and struggled to stop the running game all season. They averaged just 4.4 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, which ranked 29th in the league. But Las Vegas will kick off their season with a matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who are building from the ground up this season. Jeff Hafley will be making his NFL head coaching debut, and Malik Willis will be getting the start at quarterback. The Dolphins finished last season ranking 25th in scoring, moved on from Mike McDaniel, and saw a regression in overall talent compared to last year. Expect a step back, and expect the Dolphins’ attack to be incapable of inflicting damage that worries the Raiders’ D/ST. Willis has had turnover issues in the past, and those are certainly on the table as he adjusts to the new location. Count on the Raiders being in line for a passable defensive performance in the opening week and to outperform the $2,900 price point.
Other Considerations: Lions ($3,200), Titans ($3,100), Falcons ($2,600)
