Jason Candle opened his UConn coaching tenure by beating Lafayette 56-7, with the Huskies gaining 671 yards of total offense. He has 64 newcomers, including 57 transfers, so we should be reluctant to judge this UConn team by the nine games the program won last season. Maryland, on the other hand, only won four, then opened this new year by beating Hampton 62-0. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Connecticut Huskies and the Maryland Terrapins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UConn vs. Maryland prediction, preview
Malik Washington has taken eight sacks across his first 512 career dropbacks, good fora sparkling 1.56% rate. I trust his otherworldly elusiveness to deny UConn’s defense some of the long-yardage situations that usually come with a good pass rush. Maryland also ran for 365 yards and six touchdowns against Hampton last week. UConn should defend those handoffs better, but Washington can keep a possession alive when his protection fails. That becomes particularly useful away from home. So does a 350-yard run game. Having said that, lead back DeJuan Williams left last week’s opener banged up, so the run game might not be operating at full capacity.
Huskies QB Kalieb Osborne completed 19 of 26 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns against Lafayette, while UConn rushed for 301 yards at 7.5 per carry as a team. Candle has plenty to call again Saturday. He also has 11 penalties for 134 yards to address, and his quarterbacks threw two interceptions. Last year’s Huskies committed two turnovers all season. I’d hate to spend an afternoon coaching that many newcomers through another 134 penalty yards.
Maryland’s defense has ballhawkers who’ll look to punish Osborne more severely than Lafayette did. The Terps intercepted 19 passes last season, then intercepted three more against Hampton. They also recorded five sacks while allowing 85 yards last week. I expect them to force Osborne to throw more often on third down, in potentially third-and-long situations. If Maryland tackles UConn’s backs near the line of scrimmage, Osborne will have to complete passes with good defenders anticipating the throw, waiting to strike.
Maryland vs. UConn pick, best bet
I’m less certain Maryland will finish its own drives. The Terps scored touchdowns on only 14 of their 37 red-zone visits last season (37.8%). I’m a bit of the mindset that Washington should be looking for home-run balls into the end zone before promising possessions end with field-goal attempts on repeat. UConn, on the other hand, scored touchdowns on all five opening red-zone trips last week. and expects cleared defensive lineman Esean Carter to return. DeJuan Williams’ workload remains uncertain after he left Maryland’s opener, so I’m preparing for some regression in the running game’s production. Washington needs to supply some himself through the air.
All said, I’m laying 12.5 with Maryland. Washington has consistently avoided sacks throughout his career, and I expect his defense to force UConn into a few passing situations Osborne will botch. UConn will most certainly score, particularly if its backs keep finding first-down yardage. All the same, I’m backing Maryland to answer with touchdowns more often than last year’s red-zone record suggests. Maryland, 34-20.
Best bet: Maryland -12.5 (-110)
Projected score: Maryland 34, UConn 20
Best Bet: Maryland -12.5 (-110) at UConn
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