Last season, the Browns and the Jaguars were on opposite sides of the AFC. Cleveland stumbled to a 12-loss season, fired another head coach, and cycled through three different starting quarterbacks. On the other end of things, Jacksonville came out firing in Liam Coen’s first season, winning 13 games and capturing the AFC South title. A repeat of this last regular season would be a welcome sight in Duval, and a win over Cleveland would set the tone for another successful year. But can the Browns flip the script on them?
The Jaguars are 8.5-point home favorites with -455 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Browns are +350 underdogs, with the total set at O/U 39.5 points.
Let’s dig into a pick and prediction for this matchup.
Browns vs. Jaguars prediction, preview
After two straight brutal seasons for the Browns, big changes were needed. Kevin Stefanski got the boot from the head coaching spot, and the offense got a makeover. New head coach Todd Monken is looking to rebuild the league’s second-worst offense from last season, and he’s starting with the offensive line. That started with selecting Spencer Fano ninth overall to hold down left tackle; they also acquired Tytus Howard, Elgton Jenkins, and Zion Johnson to take starting spots on the line, while drafting Austin Barber and Parker Brailsford to provide interior depth.
Cleveland also got a draft boost in the receiving core, adding KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston as receiver complements to Harold Fannin Jr. after a breakout rookie campaign at tight end. With Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson in the backfield, the skill positions are chock full of exciting young talents ready to make a mark on this offense.
Unfortunately, they have a thousand-pound anchor around their necks at quarterback. Deshaun Watson is back under center to start his fifth season with the Browns; calling his relationship with the fans unhappy would be an understatement. After joining the team in a blockbuster trade and signing the biggest contract in NFL history, Watson has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Things got so bad that fans openly cheered when he tore his Achilles in 2024, and booed him heavily during the preseason. Watson has made no secret of his feelings toward the fans, and this might get uglier as the season goes on.
There’s a lot to like about this Cleveland team on the defensive side of the ball, even after Myles Garrett’s departure. Jared Verse is a monstrous presence on the edge, and Mason Graham has tons of promise over center. Denzel Ward continues to anchor a very strong secondary, and Carson Schwesinger could be the do-it-all middle linebacker to bring the defense together. After being a fringe top-10 unit this past season, there’s every reason to believe a repeat performance is possible for Cleveland’s defense.
Despite all of this talent, it’s difficult to look past the quarterback room. Even if Watson stinks up the joint, a likely proposition, Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel aren’t much better. A talented defense, bolstered offensive line, and promising skill position group can only go so far with the worst quarterback group in the league. It’s going to be another long season in Cleveland; on the bright side, the fans are used to that.
Jacksonville certainly doesn’t have that problem. Under Liam Coen’s guidance, Trevor Lawrence put up his best season since 2022, looking like a Pro Bowl-level quarterback once again. Winning 13 games and the division in your first season with a new head coach sets the bar awfully high, and it’s no surprise that the Jags are returning 20 of 22 starters from last season.
Lawrence boasts an excellent group of pass catchers; Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers provide him with a lot of versatility on the outside, while Brenton Strange may be poised for a breakout season at tight end. It’s going to be interesting to see how involved Travis Hunter is with the offense, as he’s expected to get most of his time at cornerback. Jacksonville is also breaking in Bhayshul Tuten as the starting running back in the wake of Travis Etienne’s departure; Chris Rodriguez Jr. is expected to get a fair bit of work in the backfield as well. After finishing sixth in scoring last year, the pressure is on for Lawrence and the Jags to keep the pace up.
On defense, it all starts with the front seven. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker form one of the best edge rusher duos in the league, with Arik Armstead providing a massive presence up the middle. Foyesade Oluokun is one of the best run-defending linebackers in the league, and a big reason why Jacksonville finished with the top run defense in the league last season. While the secondary play was inconsistent, the Jags reeled in an impressive 22 interceptions last year. That big-play ability saved them in some tight spots. If Hunter commits to playing corner full-time this season, their secondary could go from a moderate weakness to a major strength; that’s a scary proposition for opponents.
Jaguars vs. Browns pick, best bet
There’s a big problem for the Browns. Cleveland’s offense has a real chance only if Quinshon Judkins can get things going on the ground; against this defensive front, I’m not counting on it. They also have a top target at tight end, who will be covered tightly by Jacksonville’s elite linebacking corps. That means the pressure is on Deshaun Watson to come out firing to his rookie receivers and win his first regular-season game in almost two years.
Even if their defense puts on a show against Lawrence and Co., I don’t see this Cleveland offense keeping pace. The Jags should come out ready for the trap game, set the tone early, and carry the win across the finish line.
