A dominant win from the Orioles (72-76) last night set the tone for this weekend’s series at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays (73-75) will be itching for a better performance today at home. Both sides are within three games of Cleveland for possession of the American League’s final wild card spot. With plenty on the line, which of these AL East rivals will come out on top this afternoon?
The Blue Jays are favorites (-131) over the Orioles; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Baltimore and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today
- Blue Jays ML (-131): Bradish has looked shaky as of late, and the Jays have crushed the sinker ball all season. On the other side, Toronto’s above-average bullpen is good enough to keep a middling O’s offense in check today.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Kyle Bradish will be tasked with the start this afternoon, arguably the most important game of Baltimore’s season. All things considered, it’s been a stellar 2026 campaign from the right-hander. Over 152.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 3.91 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 140 strikeouts (8.3 K/9). It’s been a bit of a rough patch for the fifth-year pro recently; he’s on the hook for a 5.68 ERA over his previous four outings. It’s been a mixed bag for him in this spot before. Bradish tossed seven scoreless innings against Toronto in May, only to surrender five runs over four frames against the club in June. To make matters worse, he has a mediocre 4.45 ERA on the road this season.
Consistency at the plate has proven to be difficult for the Blue Jays. They’re averaging just 4.01 runs per game, second-fewest in the majors. With that being said. Canada’s team is beginning to turn things around. Over the past month, their 111 wRC+ is second-best among all American League teams. Bradish’s most used pitch is the sinker, which he’s thrown 32% of the time. Against that offering, Toronto batters own a stellar .288/.354/.391 slash line this season. To boot, the Jays have hit better against right-handed pitching.
It’s a bullpen day for the Blue Jays, with Spencer Miles getting the opening frame. Over 87.2 innings of work, he’s put up a 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 81 strikeouts (8.3 K/9). He hasn’t allowed a run in any of his six starts this season. As a unit, this is one of the sport’s better group of relievers. Toronto’s bullpen has combined for a 3.67 ERA, seventh-best in the majors. If this game is close during the late innings, Tyler Rogers (1.78) and Louis Varland (1.24) form a dominant one-two punch.
Baltimore’s offense isn’t a pushover by any means. The O’s are 12th in runs scored (668), primarily due to their plate discipline. The team is averaging an American League-best 3.69 walks per game. However, this group comes into today’s game in a bit of a rut. The Orioles have scored 40 runs over their last ten matchups, tied for the league’s seventh-worst mark during that time. Baltimore is responsible for the seventh-worst OPS against right-handed pitching (.708); Toronto manager John Schneider will keep that in mind when bringing a reliever into this one.
It’s difficult to go against the Orioles following yesterday’s 7-4 triumph. With that being said, Toronto’s bullpen is deep enough to mix and match its way through Saturday’s contest. In comparison, Bradish’s recent struggles are cause for concern against an improved Blue Jays offense. Back the home team at Rogers Centre in this one.
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