Our first NFL Sunday of the year is here, and it’s time for these teams to see how they measure up after a busy offseason. Both the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers have head coaches making their team debuts on Sunday, and the pressure is on to make a strong impression. But one of these teams will have to go home unhappy.
The Steelers are six-point home favorites with -265 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Falcons are +215 underdogs, with the game total set at 40.5 points. Let’s dig into a pick and prediction for this matchup.
Falcons vs. Steelers prediction, preview
It was an offseason of big changes for the Atlanta Falcons. Raheem Morris, the team’s head coach, was let go after two 8-9 campaigns; Kevin Stefanski replaced him. They also got rid of Kirk Cousins, continuing the QB circus they’ve had since Matt Ryan left in 2022. Cousins was the headliner in a group of starters that includes Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, and Michael Penix Jr. over the last four seasons. This year, they’re relying on a new quarterback to lead them: Tua Tagovailoa.
But that plan hit a snag before Week 1. Tagovailoa visibly suffered a back injury during practice, which was described as an oblique injury, and has been ruled out for this matchup. Instead of Tua or Penix (who is recovering from a knee injury), it’s going to be Cooper Rush under center against these Steelers. The QB circus goes on and on. Rush is experienced as a backup, going 9-7 in his 16 starts with a respectable 61% completion rate and 6.3 yards per attempt. He has also started at least one game in four of the last five years; all that experience prepares him for this difficult matchup.
You want to talk about pressure? Step into Mike McCarthy’s shoes. He faces the tough task of replacing Mike Tomlin, who stepped down after 19 years at the helm for the Steelers. Tomlin never had a losing season in Pittsburgh and won himself a Super Bowl along the way. McCarthy is no stranger to winning, with a 61% winning percentage across 19 seasons in Green Bay and Dallas, and a Super Bowl ring on his finger as well. Now he’s reunited with his former quarterback Aaron Rodgers, as the old comrades look to find their winning ways again.
Pittsburgh will look to set the tone defensively. TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward remain a powerful force on the defensive line, giving their excellent linebacking corps the range to make plays. Joey Porter Jr. and Jalen Ramsey can cover just about anyone out wide, and they got a lot of help in free agency with Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker, and Rayshawn Jenkins joining the defensive backfield. Tomlin’s absence changes the tone of this defense a bit, but the talent hasn’t gone anywhere.
The Steelers offense may surprise some folks. Aaron Rodgers isn’t the quarterback he used to be, but they eked out a decent pass attack on the back of Rodgers spreading the wealth between DK Metcalf and a solid cast of supporting pass catchers. That core got significantly better with the addition of Michael Pittman Jr., giving Rodgers a legitimate second target behind Metcalf. The Jaylen Warren-Rico Dowdle combo gives them a talented and versatile backfield duo to lean on.
Atlanta still has a way to go in defining its identity, especially with Tagovailoa sidelined. The defense has undergone a major makeover, and the change under center will be significant. Perhaps their identity can be having the best WR-RB duo in the league. Bijan Robinson led the league in all-purpose yards last season and is a real threat for 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving. Drake London has a 17-game pace of 98.5 catches, 1,283.8 yards, and 9.4 touchdowns over the last two seasons combined. If Tagovailoa, Rush, and Penix Jr. can keep feeding those two, their offense should be a problem.
A big question for Atlanta this year is the front seven. Stefanski retained defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich after the old regime hired him, and now he has four new starters on his defensive line and in his linebacking corps. An injury to Jalon Walker and a suspension for James Pearce Jr. haven’t made his life much better. The Falcons struggled both to stop the run and pressure opposing quarterbacks last season, putting their defense on the back foot for most of the year. If they can be average in those areas, it gives their strong defensive backfield room to make plays, but that may prove a tall task.
Steelers vs. Falcons pick, best bet
I’m not the biggest Tua supporter on the planet, but he knows how to keep the ball in the hands of his best playmakers. Rush can do the same, but to a lesser degree, and that matters against this Steelers defense. Pittsburgh should be able to run comfortably between Warren and Dowdle against this soft Atlanta front, and it’s hard to see them losing a game where they can dominate the time of possession. Expect a start-to-finish winning performance for the Steelers.
