Michael Vick returns to Scott Stadium as Norfolk State’s head coach, a rather different assignment from quarterbacking Virginia Tech there in 1999. His Spartans followed a 56-0 opening win—a statement, one though—over Winston-Salem State with a subsequent and sobering 31-10 loss at Old Dominion. Virginia, on the other hand, spent its bye week enjoying their 34-8 dismantling of NC State, and a fresh no.-25 ranking. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Virginia Cavaliers and the Norfolk State Spartans.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Virginia vs. Norfolk State prediction, preview
Norfolk State quarterback Deljay Bailey completed 70% of his passes Saturday. Lovely, until you get to the yardage: 94 on 20 attempts, with five sacks costing another 46 offensive yards. Count attempts and sacks together, and you get 1.9 net passing yards per play. Woof. At that rate, Bailey could have kept completing seven of every 10 throws and still not generated himself a first down the whole game. Virginia’s defense just held NC State to 168 total yards, so I’m quite reluctant to ask those much at all out of those short completions.
Vick and his Spartans had one encouraging opening drive at Old Dominion, but it ended in agony. They traveled 93 yards before running back Jalyn Daniels fumbled the ball away damned-near right at the goal line. Daniels finished that game with 84 yards on 11 carries, and Vick will need more of that with extra ball-security from him. The Spartans’ offensive success rate was only 26.2% against ODU. One productive series and a handful of good runs couldn’t—and certainly won’t be able to against the Cavs—rescue all the snaps that went nowhere.
Virginia’s defense is getting healthier, too, which is awful news for the Sparts. Linebacker Kam Robinson has been cleared for his first game since last season’s knee injury. Defensive back Corey Costner returns as well. HC Tony Elliott will keep Robinson on a snap count; after 10 months away, there’s little sense asking him to overextend in his first game back. Not to mention, West Virginia comes to town on 9/19. Regardless, Robinson is a different class of linebacker than Deljay Bailey’s seen yet.
Norfolk State vs. Virginia pick, best bet
Beau Pribula threw the ball only 11 times in Virginia’s opener; he completed nine for 155 yards and two touchdowns. Five running backs shared carries around him as the Cavaliers rushed for 258 yards and held possession for 38:03. Virginia can spend Friday sorting that rotation before the West Virginia game. There’ll certainly be plenty of carries to go around for the reserve backs still trying to establish themselves. Speaking of look-ahead spots—Norfolk State gets Hampton in the Battle of the Bay next. If the deficit becomes hopeless, Vick has enough reason to pull Bailey, spare him further punishment, keep him fresh for the next game.
I’m taking under 54.5. Virginia’s rushing depth could produce touchdowns after Pribula leaves, and another Bailey sack-fumble might make the field unpleasantly short. But Norfolk State converted four of 15 third downs at Old Dominion and failed on all three fourth-down attempts. I struggle to find a dependable second contributor to the scoring here, especially with Robinson and Costner returning. Virginia can thoroughly enjoy itself in a 45-3 win. That would be quite enough Friday-night entertainment for me.
Best bet: Under 54.5 (-102)
Projected score: Virginia 45, Norfolk State 3
Best Bet: Virginia vs. Norfolk State u54.5 total points (+100)
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