Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz threw for 307 yards in his first college start, helped erase a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit against ninth-ranked Ole Miss, and his team still couldn’t finish the job for him. The Rebels won 41-38 on a walkoff field goal. Louisville’s had five days to recover before Villanova visits for tonight’s Cardinals’ home opener. Judging by the defensive film, Jeff Brohm can use as much time as the schedule will allow him. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Louisville Cardinals and the Villanova Wildcats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Louisville vs. Villanova prediction, preview
All four Louisville touchdown drives against Ole Miss traveled at least 75 yards; the new kid absolutely moved the ball. Kienholz averaged 10.6 yards per attempt, with Tre Richardson and Lawayne McCoy catching touchdowns of 62 and 54 yards, respectively. Even without those two completions, he averaged 7.1 YPA across his other 27 throws. That’s encouraging breadth and some remarkable courage for an offense unveiling a new quarterback against top-ten SEC opponent. The long touchdowns were tremendous fun, especially considering they were in the throes of a comeback.
Villanova can throw some itself, too. Pat McQuaide completed 13 of 20 passes for 218 yards in Saturday’s 17-16 escape at Bucknell. Braden Reed caught both touchdowns. McQuaide has 488 passing yards through two games, including a 73-yard connection with Jake Hilton in his Week 0 opener. He also threw three interceptions in that game—a 35-32 loss to William & Mary. For all its promise, Villanova’s first season in the Patriot League has already required an excruciating amount of wait-and-see re. its new team’s most cohesive form.
Louisville’s secondary may help Villanova’s passing game come together. The Cardinals failed to sack Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns. Two 62-yard scores to Deuce Alexander supplied right around 40% of those passing yards, but still. Pat McQuaide won’t need to imitate Chambliss’s entire repertoire if receivers are getting that loose. It’s on the front-seven where my eyes’ll be, this weekend, for Nova’s defense.
Villanova vs. Louisville pick, best bet
Brohm also needs to get Isaac Brown going. His featured back gained 36 yards on 16 carries, while Keyjuan Brown supplied 56 on seven. With SMU arriving on 9/19, there’s useful work available for the offense even if Friday’s lead becomes comfortable. The abbreviated week and Sunday’s disappointment could certainly produce a flat start. Villanova has its own lapses to answer for, having managed one total yard in the third quarter at Bucknell.
I’m playing over 56.5. 17 points from Villanova would leave Louisville needing 40, a reasonable demand against this defense after what Kienholz produced Sunday. Brohm getting both running backs involved would make that assignment easier, and McQuaide has shown enough downfield ambition to keep the visitors contributing. An early blowout followed by a quiet second half is the concern. I’m betting those receivers create enough trouble before the game settles down. A 48-17 finish would do nicely.
Best bet: Over 56.5 (-108)
Projected score: Louisville 48, Villanova 17
Best Bet: Louisville vs. Villanova o56.5 total points scored (-105)
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