Fantasy Football RB Touch Projections for Week 1

As the “bell cow” role gets closer and closer to extinction every year, there is not a position in fantasy football filled with as much intrigue and importance as running back. Every week is a minefield; between committees, injuries and game scripts.

In this article, I’ll try to ease the burden of your mind a little bit. Take the pressure off, if you will.

Here are the touch projections for the notable RBs in fantasy football in Week 1.

Week 1 RB Touch Projections

Generated September 11, 2026 at 12:20 PM ET | Already played (excluded): NE@SEA, SF@LAR

– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: Favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.

– Opp Run D — Opponent rush defense grade from A+ (elite) to F (worst), based on rush yards, YPC, and TDs allowed in 2025.

– Projections — Built from 2025 per-game rates, adjusted for matchup, game spread, implied team total, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Questionable players projected at 75% volume.

Omarion Hampton, Chargers vs. Cardinals | 19.7 Projected Touches

The Chargers’ backfield is an interesting one to watch in the early portion of the season. On the one hand, running game guru Mike McDaniel is now the offensive coordinator in Los Angeles, which has everyone excited about Hampton’s fantasy ceiling after a slightly underwhelming rookie campaign. On the other, McDaniel loudly hinted in the offseason that he wouldn’t be afraid to get Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell opportunities, with Mitchell’s breakout speed likely reminding the coach of his former back De’Von Achane. In any event, Week 1’s matchup might allow for both scenarios to exist in harmony. The Cardinals surrendered the third-most FPTS to opposing RBs last season and the Chargers are 9.5-point favorites in this tilt — the largest spread on the slate. It’s a script that should mean enough volume to around.

De’Von Achane, Dolphins vs. Raiders | 19.1 Projected Touches

“I told him there might be some games when I have to pick him up and carry him back to the locker room because he’s going to be so tired.” That was new Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley talking about Achane in mid-August. Obviously, there’s some risk for empty volume here. We’ve all seen this script before. Talented running back in a vacuum, but one whose overall value is greatly impacted by a terrible offense and environment. Here’s what I’d say to that, at least as it pertains to Week 1. The Raiders are one of Miami’s softest opponents in 2026, so if there were ever a game where Achane could benefit from a somewhat neutral script, it’s this Sunday. Also, unlike most teams gunning for the No. 1 pick, the Dolphins’ offensive line might not actually be that poor. Aaron Brewer was second-team All Pro in 2025, while Patrick Paul is a rising star at left tackle. Add in first-round pick Kadyn Proctor, and there might actually be a few holes for Achane to exploit.

David Montgomery, Texans vs. Bills | 11.4 Projected Touches

Here’s one where I question the algorithm. I don’t think there’s a world where David Montgomery gets fewer carries than teammate Woody Marks on Sunday. Is there a scenario where Marks garners more total touches? It’s possible. Montgomery certainly hasn’t acquitted himself as a potent element of the passing game in years past, so Marks could reap the target benefits of a negative script. That said, the Bills surrendered 133.6 opponent rushing yards per contest in 2025 — the fifth-most of any defense in the league. I’d expect the game plan for the Texans is to test Buffalo’s front seven, win the possession battle, and keep the ball mostly out of Josh Allen’s hands. That’s a series of events that screams heavy Montgomery usage.