It’s impossible to state how much the Rangers need to start winning games in bunches.
Texas enters play on Thursday two games back of the Astros in the AL West and 1.5 games back of the Guardians for the final Wild Card spot. Remember, this is a franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs or finished above .500 since it won the World Series back in 2023. The Rangers are thirsty for some postseason action.
Can they take the rubber match of this series this afternoon? Let’s dive into this divisional rivalry with the Mariners and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Mariners prediction, preview
While this might look like a battle of aces on paper, neither Logan Gilbert or Jacob deGrom has been performing their best as of late. Let’s start with Gilbert. Across his past 10 starts, the right-hander sports an unusually high 4.68 ERA and matching 4.69 FIP. The main cause for concern? The home run ball. Gilbert’s surrendering 1.87 opponent long balls per nine in this span with an inflated 10.6% opponent barrel rate. This flaw really reared its ugly head in the former first-round pick’s most recent outing against the Athletics on September 4, when Gilbert conceded four home runs and seven earned runs in just 4.2 innings of work. The game wasn’t even in at Sutter Health Park. What is going on?
Ironically, deGrom also has a massive blow-up on his resume in the past few weeks. On August 25, the former Cy Young winner gave up eight earned runs in 3.2 innings versus the White Sox. Not a single pitch left the park, but deGrom didn’t do himself any favors by walking five in the contest. That appearances, along with a couple other clunkers, has left deGrom with a ghastly 5.06 ERA since the All-Star break. However, unlike Gilbert, the underlying numbers suggest that deGrom’s struggles are mostly just unluckiness. The veteran possesses a sterling 2.69 FIP in the same span of time, with his inflated ERA seemingly the result of a .355 opponent BABIP and a 63.2% strand rate. When those two things normalize, deGrom should be his typical, dominant self.
You know who’s a great team to get back into a groove against? Seattle. The Mariners come into Thursday ranking dead-last in the league in runs scored (574) and batting average (.229). Despite some marquee names in the lineup — and the recent power surge of Cal Raleigh — this is a unit that is simply not getting it done. Consider that Seattle’s roster is designed primarily to do two things: Hit home run and draw walks. Well, in the second-half of 2026, the Mariners rank a paltry 25th in ISO (.136). You can see the disconnect.
Rangers vs. Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rangers ML (+108)
Jacob deGrom and his 2.69 FIP since the All-Star break are due for some serious positive regression. He should get it against a Mariners team that has scored the fewest runs in baseball and is 4-9 in its last 13 games. The fact that the Rangers lead the AL in ISO across the past two weeks (.200) doesn’t hurt, either.
Strong Lean: Jacob deGrom 7+ Strikeouts (-132)
Among pitchers with 100 innings thrown in 2026, deGrom ranks seventh in both K/9 (10.93) and strikeout rate (29.9%). As for matchup, the Mariners sport MLB’s fifth-highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days (25.5%).
