The NFL is constantly pushing the envelope, seeking to expand interest in the game around the world, and Thursday’s clash is no exception. For the first time, American football will be played Down Under, when the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers meet at the Melbourne Cricket Ground at 8:35 p.m. ET (10:35 a.m. local Friday).
Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (-198 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 48.5. San Francisco is +164 on the Moneyline.
If the Rams want to get the season off to a hot start and live up to their status as Super Bowl favorites, they’ll need quarterback Matthew Stafford to get off to a hot start. Stafford became the oldest first-time NFL MVP last season at the age of 37.
Below, I’ll break down Stafford’s passing yards prop for tonight’s marquee clash in Australia’s second-largest city.
Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop Bet vs. 49ers
Matthew Stafford O262.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Stafford led the NFL in passing yards in 2025, amassing 143 more than the Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff, and there’s no reason to expect a huge drop-off in 2026 as long as Los Angeles’ offensive line can protect him. The Rams return the exact same offensive line than protected him in 2025 with an additional offseason of experience to develop chemistry, and Stafford was pressured at the seventh-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks last season.
He managed at least 263 passing yards in 10 of his 17 regular season games and two of his three playoff games in 2025, including both matchups against the 49ers, and he only narrowly missed the mark on two other occasions. Two of his eight best games of the season by passer rating came against San Francisco, as between the two matchups, he totaled 669 yards and seven touchdown passes.
The 49ers struggled in coverage last season, ranking eighth-to-last by Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades and seventh-to-last in Expected Points Added on passing plays. San Francisco also conceded the eighth-most yards on the fifth-highest completion percentage. In the offseason, the 49ers made plenty of moves, but they didn’t make any significant changes in their secondary, returning both Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green, who ranked just 40th and 86th of 109 qualified cornerbacks by PFF’s coverage grades last season, respectively. Puka Nacua was pretty effective against both Lenoir and Green.
San Francisco’s overall defense could be slightly better this season, now that Nick Bosa has returned from his torn ACL and Fred Warner is back from his broken ankle, but the difference might not be significant. The 49ers will likely rank better than third-to-last in pressure rate with Bosa back, but Stafford still posted the seventh-best passing grades last season when put under duress. Additionally, while Warner is the league’s best coverage linebacker, he likely won’t spend any time covering Stafford’s favorite targets, anyway. If anything, it might dissuade Stafford from throwing to his tight ends, instead honing in on Puka Nacua, one of the league’s best after-catch receivers.
