Of the two travel plans for the Melbourne opener, I’d have taken San Francisco’s: arrive Friday and get nearly a week to settle in. The Rams are due in barely a day before kickoff. I’m laying the field goal and the hook with LA anyway, although Nick Bosa’s return makes me less comfortable with it. I’d want Sean McVay giving his tackles some help before asking Matthew Stafford to wait on anything downfield. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rams vs. 49ers prediction, preview
Already without Sam Okuayinonu and Mykel Williams (IR and PUP, respectively), Raheem Morris badly needed Bosa for this one. With him back, leaving seven in coverage becomes a much better proposition. Four Stafford TD passes against the blitz in November would have me thinking twice about sending a fifth man, especially with Stafford so hard to get down (11.4% pressure-to-sack rate last season). The trouble for LA is that Bosa can beat his block without Morris having to send anybody extra.
Even with the deep ball covered, I’d keep going to Puka Nacua and make San Francisco tackle him (729 YAC; 1,715 receiving yards last season). Stafford threw 46 TDs against eight picks without a full, healthy summer alongside Davante Adams; now they’ve had one, after connecting for 11 scores from Week 7 onward. It’s Davante to the moon this year, I’d say.
Fred Warner’s return wouldn’t take three tight ends out of my gameplan after what Sean McVay got from his unit on heavy personnel against San Francisco last November (four TDs on 30 snaps; 63.3% success rate). Crowd the line for Kyren Williams or Blake Corum and there’s Colby Parkinson to account for in coverage, coming off eight TD catches himself. There’s Terrance Ferguson on a wheel, etc.
49ers vs. Rams pick, best bet
I’d be more comfortable asking LA’s rush to win this game if Brock Purdy were easier to bring down (9.2% pressure-to-sack rate last season). As it is, Christian McCaffrey gives him a way to unload the ball underneath (102 catches, 924 yards), assuming he’s available after missing Monday’s open practice. With San Francisco converting 49.8% of third downs last season, a few of those completions could keep LA’s defense out there longer than I’d like.
Myles Garrett made it back to practice Sunday after knee swelling. Whether Aaron Donald plays alongside him, I can’t say yet. I’ll take my chances laying 3.5 with Stafford and last year’s league-leading offense (0.11 EPA/play; 50.7% success rate), but I want the ball getting to Nacua and Adams before Bosa has much time to work. McVay has enough ways to do that for me to stick with LA.
Best bet: Rams -3.5 (-108).
Projected score: Rams 27, 49ers 23.
Best Bet: Rams -3.5 (-110) vs. 49ers
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
