Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s microscopic slate: Luis Garcia Jr. and Munetaka Murakami.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia Jr. | +310 | Ryan Feltner has struggled with the long ball all year long, surrendering a whopping 1.60 opponent big flies per nine. Not only does the 30-year-old possess an 11th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.0%), but he owns first percentile breaking pitch run value — the result of conceding 12 of his 19 homers on sliders, sweepers and curves. Meanwhile, Garcia is slugging an eye-popping .634 off breaking stuff in 2026. |
| Munetaka Murakami | +317 | The former NPB star comes into Thursday’s slate having registered 100th percentile figures in both barrel rate (19.3%) and hard hit rate (57.5%). Murakami will draw an opposite-hand matchup with Jared Jones this evening in Chicago. Jones was brilliant in his last start against the Angels; however, prior to that outing, the RHP surrendered 2.18 opponent home runs per nine in the month of August. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Luis Garcia Jr. 1+ Home Run (+310)
After hitting his 29th home run of the season on Wednesday, Garcia Jr. will be hunting down his first-ever 30 home run campaign on Thursday night. He’s got a pretty good matchup, too. Ryan Feltner will toe the rubber for the Rockies, and the right-hander has struggled with the long ball all year long, surrendering a whopping 1.60 opponent big flies per nine. Crucially, it’s been Feltner’s breaking pitches that have been victimized most often. Not only does the 30-year-old possess an 11th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.0%), but he owns first percentile breaking pitch run value — the result of conceding 12 of his 19 home runs on sliders, sweepers and curves. Meanwhile, Garcia is slugging an eye-popping .634 off breaking stuff in 2026. This might be a match made in heaven.
Munetaka Murakami 1+ Home Run (+317)
The reason to back Murakami in this market is the same every night: If he ever squares one up, it’s gone. The former NPB star comes into Thursday’s slate having registered 100th percentile figures in both barrel rate (19.3%) and hard hit rate (57.5%). He also just flat out has 31 home runs despite missing a month on the IL. That’s a level of power that you don’t find in all lineups. Murakami will draw an opposite-hand matchup with Jared Jones this evening in Chicago. Jones was brilliant in his last start against the Angels; however, prior to that outing, the RHP surrendered 2.18 opponent home runs per nine in the month of August. Jones has a huge fastball, but he can be susceptible to the long ball.
