Gateway is a bullring wearing an intermediate’s clothes — 1.25 miles, egg-shaped, more about brake feel than horsepower. It’s Race 2 of 10 in NASCAR’s new Chase format, and there’s no cut line this time. All 16 drivers run every race to Homestead; the points just add up.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the Enjoy Illinois 300
Race Winner — Christopher Bell +400
Bell is the right chalk this week. He snapped a 33-race drought Sunday night at Darlington, and it wasn’t a scrape-it-out win — Stage 2 win, 73 of 76 points, a crown-jewel trophy. Seven runner-ups this year finally turned into a checkered flag. That jump from sixth to second in the Chase puts him 12 points behind Hamlin. The No. 20 JGR Toyota has been a weekly threat all season even when the trophy wasn’t showing up.
Gateway fits him. Egg-shaped 1.25-miler, two different-radius ends, more New Hampshire/Phoenix than a typical intermediate. Bell’s floor here is strong — four starts, never worse than 11th, 8.5 average finish, second-best in the field. He’s said it himself, he needs more Chase wins to be champion. The car and the motivation are lined up.
This isn’t a long shot. It’s not a life changing payday or even a year changing payday. But if you’re picking one favorite to win Sunday, it’s Bell.
Race Winner — Joey Logano +700
This one’s about track history. Logano owns Gateway — inaugural winner in 2022, top-five in all four starts, 3.5 average finish. Nobody else with a full sample comes close. He’s the only driver to finish in the top five every time here.
The track fits Penske’s whole season. They’ve been a step behind the Toyotas on the big intermediates, but on flat, shorter ovals they’ve been the class of the field — Logano’s already won at North Wilkesboro and Richmond, Blaney took Phoenix and New Hampshire. Gateway’s flat corners and hard braking into Turn 1 belong in that bucket. Penske also has two of the four Cup winners at this track, Logano and Cindric, so the shop knows how to set these cars up here.
Logano sits eighth in the Chase, about 70 back of Hamlin. He needs wins. That urgency, plus the résumé, makes +700 the better price than the chalk.
