The Twins still have an outside shot at a Wild Card spot, as they enter the day 4.5 games back of the Guardians in the standings, with a series against Cleveland starting this weekend. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
First things first. Minnesota needs to win the rubber match of this series versus the Tigers.
Can the Twins keep their slim postseason hopes alive this afternoon? Let’s dive into this divisional rivalry and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Doesn’t it feel like Zebby Matthews has been a rookie for the Twins for the past three years? To be fair, 2026 has been the 26-year-old’s first real chance to be an “everyday” member of the team, as Matthews has easily set career-highs in starts (20) and innings thrown (117.0). Have they all been quality innings? Not quite. However, the right-hander has been at his best in recent weeks, maintaining a 2.42 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP dating back to an August 18 outing against the Braves. It’s a span of four appearances where Matthews has been able to register a very impressive 6.7 K/BB ratio. If he can suppress opponent OBP, Matthews should at least be able to limit the damage of his fourth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.1%). I mean, if you’re going to give up home runs, make sure they’re solo shots, right?
In terms of Wednesday’s matchup with the Tigers, Matthews seems to be drawing Detroit at a very opportune time. To be completely blunt, the Tigers have been one of the worst lineups in baseball in the second-half. It’s the main reason why the club’s playoff aspirations went down the drain — even more than trading Tarik Skubal to Los Angeles. Specific to the past 14 days, Detroit ranks 28th in batting average (.208), 30th in OBP (.275), 29th in wOBA (.263) and 29th in wRC+ (65). It also has the league’s highest strikeout rate by a wide margin in this stretch (29.0%). That’s simply no way to win baseball games.
Ironically, the Tigers did manage to build a 6-1 lead in Keider Montero’s most recent outing, however the right-hander squandered it in a season-worst performance. Thanks primarily to a Brayan Rocchio grand slam, Montero conceded six earned runs in only four innings of work back on September 4. But let’s not entirely dwell on that. In all honesty, Montero’s been a vital element of Detroit’s rotation in 2026, pitching to a 3.52 ERA and a 3.44 xERA over 143.0 frames. You’d like to see more swing and miss in his profile, as evidenced by a fifth percentile whiff rate (18.3%), yet at the end of the day, Montero doesn’t walk anyone and he limits opponent launch angle well enough. He’s a perfectly passable back-end starter.
Twins vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-113)
The Tigers rank 29th in wOBA (.263) and 29th in wRC+ (65) over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, both Zebby Matthews and Keider Montero have generally been solid in 2026, with the former even pitching to a 2.42 ERA across his past four starts. Runs should be at a premium.
