Torey Lovullo got three scoreless innings from Corbin Burnes on Tuesday. Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka get the ball tonight, two more returning starters in a shared assignment after an 11-inning win. I can understand the momentum in Arizona’s dugout, the assumption that perhaps they could score the big runs so effectively two nights in a row. But both Gallen and Daniel Lynch have been leaving far too many at-bats for their defenses to finish. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Royals vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Gallen returns from right elbow inflammation in a piggyback role with Soroka; he posted a 6.34 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and only 61 strikeouts in 98 innings before hitting the shelf. Opponents are barrelling 11.0% of their contact against him, and only striking out 13.9% of the time. He reached four innings and 60 pitches in a simulated game on 9/4; Kansas City gets the first opportunity to test how that preparation holds up. Burnes just beat them on nearly the same rehab trajectory.
Carter Jensen is a fairly unpleasant hitter to find waiting: five home runs, 10 extra-base hits, and a .795 SLG in 55 PA since 8/26. Jac Caglianone—projected back in the lineup tonight—is batting .350 over the same stretch, while Bobby Witt Jr. has only seven strikeouts in 59 PAs. Gallen has allowed a .493 SLG% to lefties, and a .521 mark to righties. There’s no room to hide in the top of the Royals’ order, even when you get to Vinny P.
Lynch’s 3.51 season ERA needs some unpacking before making the other half of this bet. In six starts, he has allowed 16 earned runs in 20.1 innings—a 6.97 ERA—with 11 strikeouts against eight walks. His latest outing produced five runs and zero strikeouts over five innings. Ketel Marte has hit safely in all seven games since returning and owns a .583 SLG against lefties. I’d be happy letting him swing against a starter having this much trouble finishing at-bats.
Diamondbacks vs. Royals pick, best bet
Soroka could quiet things considerably once he enters. He has a 3.40 ERA and six home runs allowed in 95.1 innings, and his return could spare Arizona’s heavily used bullpen. Those relievers have allowed only one home run in 53.1 innings since 8/27. With Corbin Carroll expected to sit again because of his back, and Arizona carrying a .627 OPS since 8/26, I’m allowing for some empty innings between the better scoring chances.
The trouble for an under is that Lynch’s departure brings Kansas City’s 5.05-ERA bullpen into the game. That staff threw 98 relief pitches Tuesday, and showers could complicate an already delicate pitching schedule. I’m taking the over; I like the Royals to strike early, and Arizona to break through late. Nine runs feels altogether attainable; I have the Diamondbacks edging it, 5-4.
Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-120)
Projected score: Diamondbacks 5, Royals 4
Best bet: Royals vs. Diamondbacks o8.5 total runs scored (-120)
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