With the 2026 NFL regular season fast approaching, it’s time to get bold. Everyone has their own takes these days, but there’s only so many times you can hear someone say the Bears’ offense will be elite or the Rams are winning the Super Bowl before the hot takes cool to a more lukewarm state.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a popular pick to make the playoffs this year, if not win the AFC West outright. Is that a bold prediction, or is it more controversial to project them to fall short despite adding a superstar running back and defensive talent over the offseason? Let’s dive in.
Bold predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs
Last year’s 6-11 finish was wildly underwhelming for the Chiefs, who have been one of the winningest franchises in the NFL over the last several years. However, Patrick Mahomes’ Week 14 ACL tear was enough to excuse the team for the way the 2025 season ended, which was with six consecutive losses with plenty of starters out hurt. One could almost argue it was a soft tank for Kansas City – which secured the No. 6 selection in the draft as a result.
It was a busy offseason which followed. Some standout faces departed, such as former All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie who went to the Los Angeles Rams via trade in exchange for a package that included a first-round pick. However, new names arrived as well, headlined by the reigning Super Bowl MVP, halfback Kenneth Walker III. The Chiefs went on to add Manoor Delane and Peter Woods in the first round of the draft along with R Mason Thomas in the second, significantly shoring up the defense if the rookies can perform. Rashee Rice spent a brief time in jail but has since rehabbed a knee injury and is back on the field, Xavier Worthy should be healthy after dealing with a shoulder issue last season, and fifth-round rookie Cyrus Allen has garnered plenty of hype prior to the regular season.
It seems just about everyone is bullish on this organization returning to its winning ways moving forward. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs’ win total is set at 10.5 with -205 odds to make the playoffs and +170 odds to win the AFC West, making them the favorite for the division.
Is this hype warranted, though? Personally, I believe there’s enough in this team’s profile to warrant hesitancy that should have bettors pumping the brakes.
Yes, Patrick Mahomes is arguably the most talented quarterback to ever walk the planet, but he’s coming off a torn ACL and LCL suffered late last season. People seem to assume he’ll return to form sooner rather than later, especially since he plays quarterback, a position at which such injuries are generally less worrisome than for, say, a wide receiver. The arm talent certainly isn’t going anywhere, but look at how the multi-time MVP plays the game. He’s one of the NFL’s great scramblers and thrives on escaping the pocket, making throws on the run and using his legs to pick up yardage for what’s become the inevitable Mahomes first down. If he’s hampered in any way in terms of athleticism, could it sap much of what makes him so dangerous – at least in the short term of this season alone?
And yes, it’s true that the Chiefs reunited with the offensive coordinator who Mahomes and this attack thrived under. Getting Eric Bieniemy back into the fold is meaningful, particularly after the regression this offense showed over the last couple of campaigns. It’s basically been three years since Kansas City was truly electric, so hiring the coordinator back made a ton of sense for the franchise. The addition of Walker in the backfield is also a major boost given that the Chiefs’ run game has largely been miserable over the last few years as well, so his presence should open things up some for the aerial attack. However, look at the surrounding weapons elsewhere. Rice is a great zone-buster but isn’t a true alpha wideout who can beat man coverage, Worthy has underwhelmed throughout his young career, Travis Kelce is showing clear signs of regression in his old age, and Allen is an unproven fifth-round rookie. That doesn’t scream explosive offense.
The supporting cast on offense isn’t one that feels truly great as a whole; it merely has a couple of great pieces. The Chiefs’ defense should be quite solid given the new additions and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s ability to coach them up, but Chris Jones also isn’t getting any younger in the middle and they’re still depending on rookies to step up in a big way.
In a difficult division, is that going to be enough to compete with the Denver Broncos, who won 14 games last season and added Jaylen Waddle? Can Kansas City hang with the Los Angeles Chargers, who have won 10+ games in each of the last two years and now have Mike McDaniel calling what should be an incredible offense? Even the Las Vegas Raiders should be better with Klint Kubiak at the helm and No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza waiting for his chance to start under center.
The competition is fierce in the AFC West and a lot of things need to go right for the Chiefs to truly compete for this division. Look elsewhere in the conference and the competition doesn’t get easier – the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars all feel like virtual locks for the playoffs, while the Cincinnati Bengals are also in the mix. With just seven postseason spots up for grabs and two AFC West teams likely making it into the fold, it’s tough for me to see Kansas City as one of them.
Is it a long shot to pick Mahomes and the Chiefs to miss the playoffs? Not exactly, but it does feel bold given how people seem to believe they’ll pick up right where they left off as if this doesn’t have some makings of a re-tool year. I think that in the end, they’ll underwhelm compared to expectations by missing the playoffs.
