Aaron Judge made his much-anticipated return last night for the Yankees (82-62). However, it was starting pitcher Cam Schlittler that stole the show, leading the Pinstripes to a 5-1 win over the Rockies (55-89). New York will now attempt to clinch a series victory, hoping to gain ground on the division-leading Rays. Will the Bronx Bombers get it done at home tonight vs. Colorado?
The Yankees are favorites (-258) over the Rockies; the over/under is set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s interleague showdown between Colorado and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockies vs. Yankees pick, best bet today
- Rockies vs. Yankees over nine runs (-119): The Yankees are finally looking like an above-average offense, coinciding nicely with Judge’s return. As for the Rockies, getting some runs off of a middling pitcher such as Warren shouldn’t be difficult on Wednesday.
Rockies vs. Yankees prediction, preview
For most of the season, Tomoyuki Sugano defied the odds. Despite mediocre peripherals, the Japanese hurler managed to stave off regression for an otherwise dismal pitching staff. Unfortunately for the Rockies, it’s been a difficult second half for the veteran. He’s on the hook for a 6.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over his last ten outings. Those numbers shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Sugano ranks within the third percentile or worse in xERA (6.80), xBA (.312), average exit velocity (91.1 MPH), whiff rate (18.2%), strikeout rate (14.0%) and barrel rate (12.3%).
Sugano has had trouble containing the long ball, currently on the hook for a 1.8 HR/9 ratio. That could make a difference during this evening’s matchup. The Yankees have hit an American League-best 194 home runs. Keep in mind, they’ve crushed most of those without Aaron Judge. The two-time AL MVP is finally back in action, although it’ll take some time to shake off the rust. Even if #99 doesn’t make much of an impact, the Pinstripes are finally beginning to get it together at the plate. Over the past three weeks, New York has recorded the league’s seventh-best wRC+ (110).
Will Warren will pitch for the 29th time this evening. Last weekend, the righty tossed 2.1 scoreless innings vs. the Padres in a rare relief appearance. Still, the right-hander remains a key piece in this Yankees rotation. Over 136.1 innings of work, he’s notched a 4.16 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 133 strikeouts (8.8 K/9). With that being said, it’s safe to say he’s been fairly mediocre on the mound this season. Warren ranks inside the 30th percentile or worse in xBA (.263), average exit velocity (90.9 MPH), whiff rate (22.2%) and hard-hit rate (44.4%). To boot, he’s been even worse during the second half (4.50 ERA).
Colorado has been carried by its offense, as is usually the case. It all starts with Hunter Goodman, who slugged his 37th homer of the season last night. The standout catcher ranks fifth in dingers and fifth in slugging percentage (.532). He’s joined by a few other quality bats, including TJ Rumfield (125 wRC+), Jake McCarthy (110 wRC+) and Kyle Karros (104 wRC+). However, as a whole, this group leaves plenty to be desired. The Rockies own a .692 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, ninth-worst in the majors. However, Colorado has the third-highest wOBAcon in baseball (.382). In simpler terms, the team’s hitters tend to do damage when making contact. As previously mentioned, Warren has had difficulty when it comes to giving up hard hits.
Best Bet: Rockies vs. Yankees over nine runs (-119)
The easy play is to back the Yankees, but there isn’t much value on a -258 favorite. Instead, consider the over this evening in the Bronx. Sugano has been a mess as of late, and it’s difficult to envision him reversing course during a trip to New York. On the other side, Warren is the definition of inconsistent. Goodman and these Rockies hitters could make a dent during tonight’s contest.
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