Every Pittsburgh starter collected a hit Tuesday, and the Pirates finished with 18 knocks total, six doubles, and a 9-3 win. A fairly persuasive advertisement for the over, wouldn’t you say? I’m taking under anyway, and not just to be contrarian. The resurgent Davis Martin gets the ball for the home White Sox Wednesday, and, on the other side, Pittsburgh’s pitching depth is considerably more appetizing than a bullpen game usually suggests. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago White Sox and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
White Sox vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Martin returned from the injured list on 9/2 and shut out Houston over 5.1 innings, needing only 80 pitches to do so. His 4.13 ERA mostly came from a pre-injury implosion over five or six starts. Hisseason-long 6.4% barrel rate allowed and 0.83 home runs per nine innings are what I’m targeting when looking at the total. The Pirates will be tired after last night, and they’ll need to earn their runs with several crisp at-bats against that sinker.
Bryan Reynolds is hot for Pittsburgh, so he’s a threat to generate runs. He’s batting .333 since 8/26, and his last 10 batted balls average 99.2 mph. Brandon Lowe has a 1.048 OPS over the same stretch. The middle of this order deserves will command every bit of Martin’s attention. Elsewhere, though, Pittsburgh’s .370 SLG% since 8/26 is so cold it’s sobering. A reminder, indeed, that Tuesday was an unusually productive evening.
Chicago’s biggest bats have been giving pitchers plenty of help. Munetaka Murakami has struck out 24 times in 54 PA since 8/26; Colson Montgomery has 18 strikeouts in 47. Lake Bachar can exploit some of that, having struck out 25.2% of his opponents this season. He worked 2⅓ scoreless innings on 9/3 before Khristian Curtis supplied another three. Curtis offers another option for length, although six walks in his first 11 MLB innings keep me from treating the rookie’s 1.64 ERA as settled business.
Pirates vs. White Sox pick, best bet
Bubba Chandler’s six innings Tuesday also left Luke Weaver, Camilo Doval, and Carmen Mlodzinski unused. Pittsburgh’s relievers have surrendered zero home runs in 43.1 innings since 8/27. Chicago’s bullpen has a 1.70 ERA over that span, and Tuesday’s 118 relief pitches belonged to three pitchers. Grant Taylor, Hagen Smith, and Bryan Hudson all avoided that cleanup job. These pens aren’t ones we should bank on letting the late innings get funky.
Temps are forecasted to hang squat in the 70s, with a light breeze or two. I’m eager to give the pitching the benefit of the doubt. I’ll take under nine at -120, and expect the rested relievers to close the door. Pittsburgh gets my nod in a 4-3 game.
Best bet: Under 9 runs (-120)
Projected score: Pirates 4, White Sox 3
Best bet: White Sox vs. Pirates u9.0 total runs scored (-120)
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