With just over two weeks remaining in the MLB regular season, the NL Wild Card race is down to two teams with real jeopardy. Five of the six NL playoff teams are effectively in, and eight are effectively out. That leaves the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres, who are separated by half a game.
Every game for both teams is a must-win from here on out. San Diego will play the middle game of a three-game home set against the Washington Nationals tonight after taking last night’s opener, 3-2.
First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET tonight. Riley Cornelio will take the mound for the Nationals as an opener, and Casey Mize will start for the Padres.
Let’s break down this pivotal affair with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres Best Bets
- Over 8 (-110): Each of these offenses got super hot right after the All-Star break before cooling off slightly, but both of these starting pitchers have been rusty enough as of late that the offenses could get back on track.
- Fernando Tatís Jr. 1+ Runs (-115): Tatís has scored at least once in five of his last seven games, as the top of San Diego’s order has continued to click. All in all, Tatís has ranked in the NL’s top 10 in runs thrice.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres prediction, preview
Washington has been out of the playoff picture for a while, and they’ve been limping to the finish line, losing each of their last five games. Though this season represents progress regardless for the Nationals, given that they lost 96 games in 2025, they’ve gone only 19-30 since the All-Star break, one of baseball’s worst records in that span. Washington’s offense has still been baseball’s third-best for the season as a whole, but over the last 30 days, it’s had baseball’s sixth-worst mark. CJ Abrams has had a rough go of it since the start of April, recording a .525 OPS across that span, and with Abrams struggling, the Nationals have missed Luis García Jr. and Curtis Mead, both of whom they traded at the trade deadline. Washington’s offensive regression hasn’t been accompanied by an improvement in its pitching, as its bullpen has somehow had an 8.72 ERA so far in September. Foster Griffin had been the only starting pitching depth behind Cade Cavalli before he was dealt at the deadline, and Brad Lord is the only player on the current roster with more than 10 relief appearances and a sub-4 ERA.
Meanwhile, San Diego got hot after the Midsummer Classic and hasn’t looked back. At the All-Star break, the Padres were just .500, but they’ve gone 28-20 to start the second half of the season, including a pivotal split against the Diamondbacks. San Diego had the worst offense in the league in the first half of the season, but it ranks third since the All-Star break, with Ty France continuing his hot form and Fernando Tatís Jr. (.296/.368/.602 slash line across that span) turning back into the MVP candidate he was expected to be on a perennial basis. Additionally, both the Padres’ rotation and their bullpen have taken steps forward since the start of the second half, as their rotation has posted a 3.41 ERA and their bullpen a 3.02 mark, both well above-average. Neither of San Diego’s trade deadline acquisitions, Robbie Ray and Mize, has even been all that good, but each of Mason Miller, Bradgley Rodriguez, and Yuki Matsui has a sub-2 ERA this season, with Adrián Morejón not that far behind. Last night, the Padres turned to Rodriguez, Morejón, and Miller with a one-run lead in the seventh inning, and they shut it down.
Cornelio has some starting experience, as he began the season in Triple-A Rochester’s rotation, pitching to a 4.78 ERA as a starter. However, he hasn’t made a start at any level since May 27, so despite not having pitched since last Wednesday, he shouldn’t be expected to pitch more than three innings, a mark he’s only reached once at the MLB level. He’s shown some flashes, with an xBA and a whiff rate that would be in the league’s top decile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, but he’s struggled with his control in both the majors and the minors, and San Diego has earned an above-average number of walks as is. He’d also rank in the bottom decile in hard-hit rate, and the Padres have laced the ball all season despite their lackluster offensive numbers overall. Despite his flashes, I wouldn’t expect him to escape his innings completely clean, and given that the overall staff behind him ranks second-to-last in hard-hit rate and fourth-to-last in average exit velocity, I’m not so confident in his bullpen’s ability to back him up, either. The Nationals do have an ERA nearly a full run lower on the road, and San Diego has been significantly worse at home, but this should be a game in which the Padres can get some offense going.
Mize’s start might be an opportunity for Washington to get hot again offensively. It would be foolhardy to read too much into six starts, but a 6.67 ERA and a negative-0.8 WAR is pretty hard not to notice. To be fair, Mize’s numbers are still inflated by a 3.1-inning, eight-run outburst in his first start with the team, but his 4.56 ERA and 6.64 FIP in his five starts since still leave plenty of room to be desired. Overall, he still has strong metrics, as his 3.44 xERA ranks in the 77th percentile and his .229 xBA in the 65th. He also has an 89th-percentile walk rate, and Washington has walked the 10th-most times. However, Mize ranks slightly below the league median in average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, which could prove challenging against a Nationals team that ranks among the league leaders in each of the power categories. Still, with the exception of ground ball rate, he isn’t horrible at anything, and Washington has posted an OPS 47 points worse on the road.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8 (-110)
Although last night’s game stayed under the total, Mize has some real weaknesses that the Nationals have the personnel to take advantage of, and any bullpen that has pitched to an 8.72 ERA in the early part of this month isn’t trustworthy.
Strong Lean: Fernando Tatís Jr. 1+ Runs (-115)
With how well Tatís has been seeing the ball, it’s hardly a surprise that he’s scored in five of his last seven games, and he’ll be followed by third hitter Manny Machado (.361 batting average in his last 10 games) and France in the cleanup spot.
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