Last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees to win back-to-back World Series titles, but it wasn’t easy. The Dodgers required an extra playoff round on their path to the title, which began with a sweep in the Wild Card series against the Cincinnati Reds.
This season, Los Angeles and Cincinnati certainly won’t face off in the Wild Card round, but the Reds could help the Dodgers advance to the divisional round anyway. Entering the middle game of a three-game set at Dodger Stadium tonight, Los Angeles has a two-game lead over the Atlanta Braves for the second seed in the NL.
First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET tonight. The Dodgers will start Tarik Skubal, while Cincinnati will counter with Nick Lodolo.
Let’s break down this lefty-on-lefty matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
- YRFI (-105): Skubal has given up 11 first-inning runs in 22 starts this season, his worst performance of any inning. He’s allowed at least one run in three of his first six starts with Los Angeles, and while Lodolo has been better in the first inning than Skubal, he’s a 6.00 ERA pitcher on the road overall.
- Teoscar Hernández 2+ Total Bases (+121): The 2024 Home Run Derby champion has been lacing it over the last couple of weeks, putting up a 1.072 OPS in his last 12 games. Lodolo, who ranks in the first percentile in xBA and the ninth percentile in average exit velocity, shouldn’t present much of a challenge.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
Since the Reds peaked at 16-8, it’s been a slow slide out of playoff contention, as Cincinnati suffered an eight-game losing streak in late April and early May, and it never quite got back on track. At 69-75, it’d be firmly in contention in the AL, but the Senior Circuit’s competence means the Reds are 7.5 games behind the final Wild Card spot. On the bright side, Cincinnati ranks 13th offensively in the last 30 days, an improvement relate to its season-long form. Elly de la Cruz has been white-hot; in his last 15 games, he has a 1.249 OPS, going deep in three straight games. Plus, new U.S. citizen Eugenio Suárez has also found his power stroke, putting up an OPS north of .800 since the Midsummer Classic to help buoy an offense that still has some of baseball’s worst regulars. However, the Reds’ pitching has been rather poor as of late, as their rotation posted a 5.46 ERA in August and a 5.93 mark so far in September and their bullpen has remained one of the worst in baseball. Cincinnati has had basically no pitching depth beyond Cy Young Award candidate Chase Burns, as he and reliever Brock Burke are the team’s only two pitchers with multiple innings pitched and a sub-3 ERA.
On July 4, Los Angeles was 59-31, well on its way to another 100-win season, but since then, the Dodgers have played basically .500 baseball, going 28-26 even after their current five-game winning streak. Since the All-Star break, Los Angeles has been pretty cold offensively, ranking just 17th in OPS, as Shohei Ohtani (dealing with arm, knee, and neck injuries) has batted just .205 in his last 20 games and Kyle Tucker has slashed .172/.278/.298 since the Midsummer Classic. At least Will Smith’s return from injury should help in the long term, especially since Dalton Rushing went out again with an elbow injury. The Dodgers have had an expectedly decent rotation across the last several weeks, as the floor of a unit that features Yoshinobu Yamamoto and recently added Skubal, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow is extremely high. However, Los Angeles’ bullpen has continued to struggle, pitching to a 5.01 ERA in July and a 4.88 mark so far in September. All five of the Dodgers’ relievers with more than 50 innings pitched this season have sub-3 ERA’s, so it’s not all bad, but Los Angeles has simply given too many innings to pitchers who haven’t been quite so good, including new acquisition Seth Halvorsen (10.80 ERA). The Dodgers will likely be better in the playoffs, when Kris Bubic and Roki Sasaki will likely join the relief corps and Dave Roberts can be more selective with his depth options.
Lodolo has seen some regression since last season. The left-hander had a 3.33 ERA in 29 appearances (28 starts) in 2025, but he has just a 5.08 mark so far this season in 17 starts, missing the first month of the season with blister issues and making seven starts with four or more earned runs allowed. Advanced numbers suggest that he’s been even worse, as he ranks in the first percentile in both xERA and xBA. The only Statcast categories in which he doesn’t rank in the bottom two quintiles are walk rate and ground-ball rate, and unfortunately for him, Los Angeles has been among the league’s best both at drawing free passes (it’s earned the third-most) and at getting the ball in the air (it ranks second in fly-ball rate). His inability to induce whiffs could continue to be a problem for a Reds defense that has been the league’s worst, especially since the Dodgers whiff at a fairly low rate as is. Lodolo also ranks in the bottom octile in both barrel rate and average exit velocity, making him a good matchup for Los Angeles’ relatively powerful lineup. The Dodgers have been surprisingly lackluster at Dodger Stadium, recording the 14th-worst home OPS in the league, but Lodolo’s 6.00 road ERA shouldn’t fill Cincinnati with much confidence.
Los Angeles should feel confident about picking up a sixth win in a row with Skubal on the mound. The two-time consecutive AL Cy Young Award winner hasn’t looked quite as sharp since joining Los Angeles, but a 3.03 ERA and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings is still pretty decent output for just about any other pitcher. Statcast numbers concur; he ranks in the 89th percentile in xERA and the 96th percentile in pitching run value. In particular, Skubal fools batters with ease, ranking in the top decile in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, and while the Reds have walked a lot, they’ve also struck out more than any other team and found air at the fifth-highest rate. To be fair, Skubal is comparatively prone to barrels, ranking in just the 55th percentile in barrel rate, and Cincinnati ranks second in that stat, but Skubal should still be fine overall. He hasn’t pitched particularly well at Dodger Stadium for his career, but that’s partially influenced by two games against the Dodgers as a visitor, and he has only allowed six total runs in his three home starts as a member of the team.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: YRFI (-105)
I can’t believe I’m partially fading Skubal, but he’s actually posted a 4.50 ERA in the first inning this season before settling down later on. Combined with Lodolo’s overall mediocrity, it wouldn’t be a surprise if a run was scored in the first inning.
Strong Lean: Teoscar Hernández 2+ Total Bases (+121)
Hernández has had a rough offensive season, but he’s been seeing the ball rather well in his last 12 games, slashing .386/.481/.591 and recording seven games with multiple total bases across that span. Lodolo most frequently throws changeups to righties, and Hernández has a .586 xSLG against lefty change-ups.
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