We’re heading down the stretch of the MLB’s regular season as the chase for the postseason heats up with each passing game. In a weak American League, particularly in the AL West, the Texas Rangers are just two games back of the division and 1.5 games shy of the Wild Card. They’re taking on the division-rival Seattle Mariners in a new series that begins tonight – first pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Rangers vs. Mariners game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Mariners prediction, preview
The Rangers are still working to remain in the playoff mix. They’re 71-73 with a -44 run differential, which is far from what one expects from a contender. At second in the AL West, arguably the weakest division in baseball, they’re only chasing the Wild Card because other teams are also underwhelming – not because of their own strengths. They’re up against a divisional foe, but the Mariners are 67-77 with a -71 differential themselves. Somehow, they’re only 5.5 games shy of the Wild Card as well.
Both clubs are yet to announce a starter, but based on Fangraph’s projections, it will likely be LHP Cody Bradford (0-4) for Texas. The 28-year-old has thrown 30.1 innings across six games with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP, striking out just 16 batters over this sample. His K% is an abysmal 11.9% but his 5.2% BB% is elite.
RHP Bryce Miller (4-8) is projected to get the nod for Seattle. He holds a 4.01 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 95 strikeouts over his 98.2 IP. His K% is 23.9% with a 6.5% BB%. However, Miller has faded extremely hard lately, amassing a 6.59 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP since the All-Star break. He was also recently demoted to the bullpen, but has just rejoined the rotation.
Neither lineup has been stellar at the dish over the second half of the season. The Rangers are just 24th in total runs scored (196), but it’s really the end product they’re lacking. They’re actually 16th in OPS (.712) and 11th in wRC+ (101) over this span, also moving to 10th in ISO (.161). The Mariners, however, have scored the second fewest runs (177) and are 17th in wRC+ (97) over the same sample. Their OPS is just 27th (.673) with the fifth-lowest ISO (.135).
Rangers vs. Mariners pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mariners as a -136 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Rangers are a +113 underdog on the road. The total is set at eight combined runs.
It’s a bit tough to make a call here given that we don’t have official word on pitchers yet, but in lieu of that matchup. I’m rolling with Texas based on the bats. The Rangers have actually been much better over the last two weeks, averaging over five runs per game with a 122 wRC+ that ranks third and a .790 OPS that falls in the same slot. The shocking part is that they’re doing it despite a .277 BABIP that’s on the low end. Sure, a .204 ISO means they’re hitting the cover off the ball – that helps plenty – but they’re reaching base at an elite level with a .343 wOBA that ranks fourth.
As long as Texas’ hitters keep performing like this, they’re certainly at an upper hand tonight against one of the lowest-scoring clubs in the sport. If Miller winds up pitching for Seattle, the matchup looks even better for the visitors.
