Last season, both the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins were in it with a chance up until the final weeks of the regular season. For the Mets, it came at the at the tail end of an epic summer collapse, and for the Marlins, it was a late-season charge up the standings that ultimately fell short.
As the teams play their final series of the 2026 season, there are some similarities. New York’s collapse came earlier this season, and it’s been out of the playoff picture for a long time, and Miami’s two runs of respectability haven’t been enough to overcome a franchise-record 12-game losing streak in the middle of the season.
The middle game of the series is set to begin at 6:40 p.m. ET. Sean Manaea is set to take the mound for the Mets, and the Marlins will counter with Sandy Alcantara.
Let’s break down this divisional battle with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Best Bets
- Miami Marlins Moneyline (-124): Alcantara has pitched to a 2.58 ERA in his 13 home starts this season, and Manaea has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts. Even as a clear favorite, this is decent value.
- Sandy Alcantara O18.5 Outs Recorded (+123): The Dominican is a workhorse, leading all of baseball in innings pitched for the second time in his career, and the last time he failed to start the seventh inning at home came all the way back in May.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins prediction, preview
New York took the series opener last night, its fourth win in five games. The Mets have actually been pretty decent as of late, going a solid 19-14 since the start of August. Across the last 30 days, New York has had baseball’s 12th-best offense, and that could rise now that Juan Soto has returned after missing more than a month with a calf strain. In the meantime, the Mets have found a star to man the opposite corner, as rookie right fielder Carson Benge has posted a .793 OPS since the All-Star break. Additionally, New York has pitched decently, given that it rebuilt its entire rotation and bullpen at the trade deadline. Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Huascar Brazobán, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, and A.J. Minter are all gone, but Nate Lavender has still yet to give up a run in his first 13 MLB appearances, and Kodai Senga has reinvented himself as a lockdown closer. The Mets’ rotation could still use some work, but Lavender and Daniel Duarte are on the correct side of 30, so their breakouts could still help New York in the next couple of seasons.
Miami’s latest stretch of four losses in five games might have officially done it in. The Marlins are one game under .500, and despite being fifth in the NL Wild Card race, they trail the Arizona Diamondbacks by five games, a margin that might be too large to overcome. In the last 30 days, Miami hasn’t quite had enough offensively, ranking just 22nd on that side of the ball in that span, as even All-Star Otto Lopez (.234/.277/.299 slash line since the Midsummer Classic) has taken a fairly significant step back. So, too, has catcher Joe Mack, who hasn’t been able to step into the shoes of Liam Hicks since he was traded at the deadline, posting an OPS below .500 in that span. In August, the Marlins made it up for it with their pitching, as their starters posted a sub-3 ERA in that month, but they’ve had a brutal start to September, with their rotation pitching to a 6.29 ERA through the first seven games of the month. Their bullpen also hasn’t been very good, recording a 4.35 ERA in August and a 4.55 mark so far in September. The latter mark would be baseball’s sixth-worst across the full season.
Manaea had a strong stretch in the middle of the season after reclaiming a bulk role, recording a 3.44 ERA across 13 outings between June 1 and August 9, but since then, he’s regressed again, allowing four or more earned runs in each of his last four starts and pitching to a 7.23 ERA across that span. Advanced numbers have been unimpressed by Manaea’s body of work, as he ranks in only the 16th percentile in xERA and the fourth percentile in pitching run value. On the bright side, he’s exhibited solid control, ranking in the 60th percentile in chase rate and the 68th in walk rate, which could be an asset against a relatively patient Miami lineup. However, Manaea has also given up plenty of hard hits, sporting bottom-quartile hard-hit and barrel rates and a 34th-percentile average exit velocity, which could mitigate some of the Marlins’ biggest weaknesses. He’s also struggled to generate whiffs, and Miami has pretty good contact skills as is. At least the location splits should be slightly in his favor; he’s been slightly better on the road.
Alcantara has had an up-and-down season. He’s had plenty of great starts, leading the league in innings pitched and giving up two or fewer earned runs in 17 of his 30 starts, but he’s also been prone to the occasional blow-up, giving up five or more earned runs six times. He’s also allowed four in each of his two most recent outings. Overall, though, his combination of efficiency and volume has allowed him to put together an above-average season overall; he ranks in the 68th percentile in xERA and the 96th percentile in pitching run value. He has exceptional control, owning an 85th-percentile walk rate, although that shouldn’t matter too much against a New York team that has drawn the eighth-fewest free passes. The 2022 Cy Young Award winner has also done a good job limiting damage, sporting an 86th-percentile barrel rate and a 76th-percentile hard-hit rate, and the Mets rank in the league’s top six in both categories. He’s struggled to induce whiffs, putting a lot of pressure on a fielding unit that ranks only 23rd in Defensive Runs Saved, but New York whiffs and strikes out at a slightly above-average rate, though not quite as much over the last month. The Dominican has also pitched like a Cy Young candidate at home, recording a 2.58 ERA in 13 starts.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Miami Marlins Moneyline (-124)
I’m probably higher on Alcantara than I should be, but he’s shown flashes of his Cy Young form for the majority of the season, especially at home. The Marlins also have a 43-30 record at home, the fifth-best home record in the NL.
Strong Lean: Sandy Alcantara O18.5 Outs Recorded (+123)
Alcantara has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last six home starts, so there’s no reason tonight would be any different. The Mets did work him out of the game after six scoreless innings on the road on August 2, but Alcantara pitched seven innings in his most recent home start against New York.
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