An interleague clash between postseason contenders headlines Tuesday’s loaded MLB slate. In this 2022 World Series rematch, the Astros (73-71) will battle the Phillies (81-63) at Citizens Bank Park. Houston is fortunate to play in the lackluster AL West, where it holds a slim two-game lead in the division. It’s a different story for Philadelphia, trailing the first place Braves by four games. With plenty on the line, which side will come out on top this evening?
The Phillies are favorites (-144) over the Braves; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Houston and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Astros ML (+119): Painter, despite rebounding over the past few weeks, isn’t a name bettors can implicitly trust. Houston, led by superstar Alvarez, can slug with the best of them. On the other side, Wesneski’s ability to prevent the ball from elevating could keep these Phillies batters off balance.
Astros vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Houston has been carried all season by its hitting. On the flip side, finding quality pitching has been a challenge at times. Fortunately for the AL West leaders, Hayden Wesneski has been a steadying presence on the mound. Since making his season debut in late July, the right-hander has notched a 3.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 33 strikeouts (7.5 K/9) over seven starts. That includes a seven-inning, one-hit masterpiece last week against the White Sox. Unlike in years past, Wesneski has done a stellar job at limiting hard contact; his 0.5 HR/9 ratio is proof.
Navigating this Phillies lineup won’t be easy; they’ve been on an absolute tear at the plate recently. This group has scored 165 runs since the start of August, fifth-most in the majors during that stretch. The Fightins have also performed much better at the plate when playing at home. With that being said, Wesneski could present some difficulty. His favorite pitch is the sweeper, throwing it 31% of the time this season. Against that offering, Philadelphia hitters have produced a dismal .192/.234/.325 slash line. As previously mentioned, Houston’s hurler has done an exceptional job at preventing homers. That’s not ideal for a Phillies lineup that relies heavily on the long ball.
On the other side, Andrew Painter gets the nod tonight. It’s been a difficult rookie season to say the least. He’s accounted for a disappointing 5.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 91 strikeouts (7.8 K/9). It’s a far cry from what most Phillies fans expected from the top prospect. However, Painter has shown some signs of life on the mound in recent weeks. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in six of his previous seven appearances. That includes seven scoreless innings last week in Arizona. Still, much of the right-hander’s best work has come on the road. Painter’s 5.81 ERA at Citizens Bank Park doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Philadelphia’s youngster will need to be at his best this evening. Houston’s offense is in a bit of a rut, but this group can still swing it. The Astros are 11th in runs scored (647), sixth in home runs (187) and seventh in slugging percentage (.407). It all centers around Yordan Alvarez, the AL MVP favorite. The Cuban paces the Junior Circuit in batting average (.314), on-base percentage (.432) and homers (38), just to name a few categories. If the season were to end today, he’d become the first hitter since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 to win a Triple Crown. Painter has had difficulty keeping the ball inside of the park, putting up a 1.5 HR/9 ratio. Houston has the ninth-best OPS on the road against right-handed pitching (.725).
The Astros, despite some recent slumping at the plate, still wield a dangerous lineup. Their power-centric approach lines up nicely against Painter as well. Philadelphia’s hurler has a knack for giving up long balls when pitching at home. Wesneski has been the opposite, forcing opponents to string together several base hits. As road dogs, Houston offers far more value for bettors on Tuesday night.
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