Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres prediction, pick for MLB on Monday 9/7/26

As part of today’s 11-game MLB Labor Day slate, the Washington Nationals will take on the San Diego Padres. 

This is the opening matchup of the series and the second time these two National League opponents have faced off this year. They last played at the end of May, when the Nationals won two of the three matchups. Jake Irvin and Nick Pivetta will be on the mound for their respective squads today. 

Looking at the odds, the Padres enter as -192 favorites to win outright and hold +111 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nationals hold +157 odds of pulling off the upset, with the run total set at eight.

Nationals at Padres prediction, preview

The Washington Nationals have slipped to 67-78 on the season, and they currently sit in fourth place in the National League East. Washington is 9.5 games back from the final Wild Card slot. They are looking to snap a four-game losing streak and have dropped 15 of their last 22 games. On the season overall, Washington has gone 82-63 to the run line, and the run total is 75-62-8 to the over/under.

Jake Irvin will be on the mound for the Nationals today, marking his 19th start of the season. The 29-year-old enters with a 2-8 record, a 5.57 ERA, and a 1.401 WHIP with 15 home runs allowed and 87 strikeouts tallied across 85.2 innings pitched. Irvin has only faced off with this Padres’ lineup in eight at-bats in his career, with two hits and two strikeouts tallied.

Looking at the production at the plate, the Nationals are slashing a collective .249/325/.429 with a .754 OPS. Washington ranks seventh in the MLB in hits, second in runs, second in home runs, and 13th in strikeouts. CJ Abrams headlines the production for the team with 137 hits, 30 home runs, and 95 RBI. Daylen Lile leads the team with 139 hits, while James Wood adds 30 home runs of his own and 74 RBI. Jacob Young, Keibert Ruiz and Dylan Crews also play notable roles.

The San Diego Padres enter with a 75-68 record on the season, which slots them in third place in the National League West. They are 11 games behind the Dodgers for the top seed in the division, but just a half-game back from the final Wild Card slot. San Diego won two of their previous three games against the Yankees, but have lost eight of their past 12. On the season overall, the Padres have gone 81-62 to the run line, and the run total is 62-77-4 to the over/under.

Nick Pivetta will be making just his fifth start of the season and his first since April 12th, as he has battled an elbow flexor injury. Across the four starts he has made, he has produced a 1-2 record, a 4.50 ERA, a 1.125 WHIP, and tallied 24 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched. Across his career, Pivetta has a 4.47 ERA and 1.265 WHIP across 258 appearances. The 33-year-old has faced off with this Nationals roster in 28 at-bats in his career, limiting them to five hits, a .179 batting average, a .448 OPS, and recording nine strikeouts. 

San Diego is slashing a collective .236/.313/.387 with a .700 OPS. They rank 27th in the MLB in hits, 24th in runs, 19th in home runs, and 21st in strikeouts. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with 155 hits, including 29 doubles, 20 home runs, and 71 RBI. Jackson Merrill adds 128 hits and a team-worst 142 strikeouts, along with 22 home runs and 70 RBI. Manny Machado offers a team-high 26 home runs along with 77 RBI, while Ty France, Gavin Sheets and Xander Bogaerts also plays key roles.

Nationals at Padres pick, best bet

Neither of these teams is exactly on a hot streak entering this matchup. My lean is toward the Padres waking up and continuing their battle for the postseason by picking up a victory tonight. The Nationals showed some encouraging flashes near the start of the season, but are largely limping to the finish line after the decision to sell at the deadline. They were swept by the Dodgers in the previous series and have lost six of their last eight series.

However, I am backing the game total to go over the eight-run total in this matchup. Jake Irvin has not exactly been a stabilizing force on the mound for Washington. He is posting a 5.57 ERA on the season, and this number has increased to 6.07 across his past seven outings. Irvin has not escaped any of these outings without allowing at least one run and has given up 4+ earned runs in four of the seven. He has also allowed eight home runs across this stretch. When Irvin is eventually relieved from the game, this is a Washington bullpen that is posting the second-worst ERA in baseball at 5.08. They have conceded 100 home runs already this season, which is 20 more than any other team in the league.

On the other side of the matchup, Nick Pivetta is a major question mark. He has not pitched in roughly five months and has just 16.0 innings tallied on the season. Pivetta gave up six earned runs in his opening start this year, and his 2.87 ERA last season was an outlier, as he has never finished another season with an ERA below 4.00. The Padres have a more than respectable collective bullpen, but expect the team to be cautious with how long he is left on the mound. This will lead to some notable arms being asked to pitch in different roes or be out there longer than they are accustomed to, and should open the door for more run opportunities.

Count on the vulnerable pitching matchup to pave the way for both teams putting up runs, beyond the eight run line. While the outlook has shifted for both these teams since they first faced off, the game total finished at 12, 13, and six during the first series. Expect both teams to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of the opposing pitching staff and for over eight runs to be put on the board today. 

Best bet: Game Total Over 8 Runs (-112)

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