After winning the treble in 2022/23 for the first time in club history, Manchester City has slowed down over the last couple of campaigns, being pipped to the Premier League title in both 2024/25 and 2025/26 and falling to Real Madrid in each of the last three iterations of the Champions League.
The Sky Blues’ 2026/27 Champions League campaign will begin on Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) away against another Iberian side, Porto. The Portuguese giants won the tournament in 1986/87 and 2003/04.
Manchester City is a -140 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to start its campaign off with all three points, and the Dragões are +350. There are +310 odds that the teams will share the spoils.
Below, I’ll break down this clash of former champions and provide my favorite bet.
Porto vs. Manchester City Best Bet:
- Porto or Tie (+110): Despite claiming three wins from three in the Premier League, the Sky Blues haven’t quite looked like themselves, needing late Rayan Cherki heroics to beat Bournemouth and barely edging past relegation fodder Coventry City. Porto’s defense as capable as any of marking Erling Haaland, and the Dragões’ youngsters in the attack have shown enough that they could easily steal at least a point.
Porto vs. Manchester City prediction, pick
Porto, long a Champions League mainstay, had played in the Europa League in each of the past two seasons after finishing third in the Primeira Liga in 2023/24 and 2024/25, but the Dragões reclaimed the Portuguese throne in 2025/26, ousting Sporting CP by six points and denying the Leões their third consecutive title. Porto is off to an excellent start in 2026/27, winning each of its first five matches in advance of its first test against Lisbon giants Benfica on September 20. The Sky Blues have started off similarly well, joining champions Arsenal as the only teams in the Premier League to take nine points from their first three games. Last season was somewhat of a disappointment for Manchester City, as it finished seven points behind the Gunners in the league, but even under new boss Enzo Maresca, the Sky Blues will expect to contend for both the domestic crown and the UCL.
Manchester City shouldn’t take the Dragões lightly. Porto did lose youngsters Rodrigo Mora and Deniz Gül, but it managed to retain its three leading scorers from last season (Samu Omorodion, William Gomes, and Victor Froholdt), all of whom are 22 or younger. The Dragōes also made the transfer of Jakub Kiwior permanent and added Hwang In-beom and Santiago Giménez, both of whom featured for their national teams at the World Cup. Improvement from Omorodion, Gomes, and Froholdt and the additions of Hwang and Giménez should strengthen an attack that scored the third-most goals from the third-most shots on target last season in the Primeira Liga. Porto also had the best defense in Portugal last season, conceding just 18 goals and 81 shots on target, and by making Kiwior’s transfer permanent, the Dragões brought back the core of their back line. They also allowed the third-fewest goals and fourth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes in the Europa League, winning among the most tackles in that competition, so their strong defense isn’t solely limited to domestic competition. Diogo Costa is the third-most valuable goalkeeper in the world, with a Transfermarkt value of €40 million, but despite Chelsea’s best efforts to pry him away, he has thus far brushed aside any desire to transfer away from Portugal.
The Sky Blues had an active transfer window, but they might’ve downgraded their squad overall. Manchester City lost World Cup Golden Ball-winning Rodri, midfielders Tijjani Reijnders, Bernardo Silva, and Nico González, and attackers Savinho and Omar Marmoush, bringing in Enzo Fernández, Elliott Anderson, Ayyoub Bouaddi, and Iliman Ndiaye to replace them. Top scorer Erling Haaland and top assister Rayan Cherki are still around, and they’ve combined for seven goal contributions so far in 2026/27, but the club still faces the tall task of replacing 24 goal contributions and legendary manager Pep Guardiola. The Sky Blues had the best attack in the Premier League overall last season and have managed the fourth-most expected goals so far while still putting on a passing clinic, but by Manchester City standards, it hasn’t always been smooth. The Sky Blues also lagged pretty far behind Arsenal defensively last season, both in the Premier League and the Champions League, and they’ve been somewhat worse than the Gunners on that side of the ball this season as well. After Manchester City lost Rodri, Manuel Akanji, John Stones, and Nathan Aké without making significant investments in that department, it might take a while for the new-look defense to jell. The Sky Blues do have one of the two goalkeepers more valuable than Costa in Gianluigi Donnarumma, who ranks second in goals prevented so far this Premier League season, but it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect their back line to take a small step back in the short term.
On paper, Manchester City should win this match, as its squad is nearly €1 billion more valuable at Transfermarkt, but the crowd at Estadio do Dragões will surely be rocking for the home side’s first Champions League match in three seasons and the Sky Blues had just two wins, a draw, and two defeats in five UCL road matches last season. Porto’s defense is strong by any standard, as it allowed multiple goals just once at home last season, and despite Erling Haaland’s singular brilliance, Manchester City hasn’t quite looked like itself this season. It needed two late goals to salvage three points against Bournemouth, and it only managed to beat relegation fodder Coventry City by one goal. By market value, the Dragões grade out similarly to the Cherries, but their home-field advantage and big-match experience should help them hold on late in a way Bournemouth failed to.
