Chicago is seven games behind Milwaukee, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is doing about everything a hitter can to drag the Cubs closer. The pitching isn’t cooperating. Sunday’s 10-3 loss was aggravating with Milwaukee losing 12-8; there went another chance to gain ground. Now comes Matthew Boyd, who was excellent in July and spent August serving up homers. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Brewers vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Nine of them in 31 innings (5.23 ERA, up from July’s 1.67). Boyd throws his four-seamer 44.3% of the time, despite a .536 xSLG allowed and only 15.2% whiffs. Jackson Chourio has good reason to look for it. He’s slugging .630 against four-seamers (.576 xSLG in 130 plate appearances ending on the pitch), although he still misses 25.3% of his swings. I’ll take Chourio’s chances if Boyd keeps challenging him with that thing.
Chourio’s recent line is useful (12-for-45, two homers, two doubles), but William Contreras is the one I’d be fretting over with men aboard. Four doubles and two homers among his last 11 hits, in 32 at-bats. I don’t love Boyd’s chances of striking him out, either (14.3% season K rate for Contreras). Between that and Chourio’s .377 OBP against lefties, Boyd could spend an uncomfortable afternoon pitching from the stretch.
Chicago scored three runs, two earned, against Robert Gasser in 4⅓ innings last Tuesday. Gasser generally keeps the walks and barrels down (6.9% and 6.2%), and that deserves some respect. Still, Crow-Armstrong has seven homers in ten games. Alex Bregman has five, plus four doubles, with only four strikeouts in 40 at-bats. Seiya Suzuki has drawn nine walks in 39 at-bats. I’d hate to be hunting for outs in there.
Cubs vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Milwaukee has the better bullpen ERA (3.36 to Chicago’s 3.99), but I wouldn’t be eager to send Grant Anderson or JoJo Romero back out there Monday. They’ve thrown 61 and 48 pitches over the weekend, respectively. Trevor Megill got two days off. Six innings from Gasser would make it easier to leave those two alone. Chicago, meanwhile, used 61 pitches from Colin Rea on Sunday alone.
I’m taking over 8.5, with Ian Happ’s knee leaving Chicago’s lineup unsettled. Boyd has been far too generous lately for me to expect him to quiet Contreras and Chourio. And after all those weekend pitches, the Brewers get Bregman and Crow-Armstrong again. I have Milwaukee scoring six; Chicago needs just three to cash this.
Best bet: Over 8.5 (-106).
Projected score: Brewers 6, Cubs 5.
Best bet: Brewers vs. Cubs o8.5 total runs (-105)
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