Kazuma Okamoto had four hits Sunday, accounting for half his hits over the last eight games. I’d be careful about expecting another afternoon like that against Jacob Lopez. Okamoto has done some damage against sliders (.487 SLG), but he misses 43.9% of his swings against them. Lopez throws his slider 33.8% of the time, getting hitters to miss 31.4% of their swings (.249 xSLG). Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Athletics vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
The walks would worry me more. Toronto has won seven of ten while batting .277, and Lopez’s season rate sits at 11.2 BB%. He’s brought that down to 7.4 BB% over his last five starts, with 33 strikeouts and nine walks in 30 innings (2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP).
George Springer has five doubles in eight games, so Lopez can still get himself into trouble by putting people on. The Athletics’ bullpen has a 5.45 ERA, although Hogan Harris has struck out 15 without allowing a homer over his last 11.2 innings (2.31 ERA). He hasn’t pitched since Friday. Elvis Alvarado rested Sunday after throwing 24 pitches on each of the previous two days.
Dylan Cease is going to make the Athletics swing and miss (221 strikeouts in 156.1 innings; 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP). Hitters miss 43.8% against his slider and 49.6% against his changeup. Zack Gelof has three homers in ten games, but also 12 strikeouts in 40 at-bats. Lawrence Butler has driven in 11 while striking out 15 times in 37 at-bats. I’d give Cease a chance to strike his way out of trouble against those two.
Blue Jays vs. Athletics pick, best bet
Jeff McNeil has 13 hits in his last 44 at-bats, and he doesn’t miss nearly as much (15.7 Whiff% this season). He’s the one who could prolong an inning if Cease starts walking hitters (10.5 BB%). Toronto got through Sunday without using Louis Varland (1.15 ERA) or Tyler Rogers (1.84 ERA). Cease can hand this over to two rested relievers who have been getting outs all year.
I’m taking under 8.5. I’ll back Cease to keep the ball in the park even on a warm Sacramento night (84 degrees at first pitch). He’s allowed only ten homers all season. Lopez has been giving the Athletics enough innings to get to Harris without asking the middle relievers to cover half the game.
Best bet: Under 8.5 (-118).
Projected score: Blue Jays 4, Athletics 2.
Best bet: Athletics vs. Blue Jays u8.5 total runs scored (-120)
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