Louisville vs. Ole Miss (Sunday – 7:30pm ET – Nashville, TN)
There’s not much negative I can say about Ole Miss. The Rebels responded perfectly to Lane Kiffin’s departure ahead of the College Football Playoff. They upset Georgia as the underdog and then took a Miami team that nearly won it all right down to the wire. Ole Miss has a nice balance of returning talent and transfers, bringing in the No. 2 transfer class, behind only Kiffin’s haul at LSU.
The returning talent is headlined by the best QB/RB combo in the country, with Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy. This is a team with CFP potential once again. However, this is a very difficult opening game against Louisville on a neutral field.
The Cardinals went 9-4 last season, getting crushed by SMU, but their first three losses were by a combined seven points. They showed high upside as well, with a big upset win over Miami in October, where the defense thrived and intercepted Carson Beck four times. Louisville won with strong defense and an explosive running game in 2025, and those elements project to return. Miller Moss was not the answer at QB, though, and that problem could be solved in 2026.
Lincoln Kienholz transfers in after being a backup in talented QB rooms at Ohio State for the past two seasons. All the pieces are in place for him to elevate this passing game and make the Cardinals even more balanced and dangerous.
This is Jeff Brohm’s most talented roster yet at Louisville, and we know he’s thrived as an underdog. Brohm is an impressive 5-2 ATS as the dog during his tenure with the Cardinals, winning all of those games outright. And his history of performing in the underdog role goes back as long as he’s been coaching. Per Action Network, Brohm is 11-4 ATS as an underdog of a touchdown or more since 2018, dating back to his days at Purdue. His teams have covered those games by 7.5 PPG. As an underdog in the range of +7 to +14 points, Brohm is 8-1 ATS with seven outright victories.
Again, I’m not down on Ole Miss, but this Louisville team is talented and well coached. I’ll take the Cardinals to hang within a score on a neutral, in what could be the most high profile game of the entire weekend.
CFB Pick: Louisville +7 (-110)
