Kittle suffered a torn Achilles in January, but the veteran apparently is ahead of schedule on his rehab and is “trending in the right direction to play” in Thursday’s season opener vs. the Rams in Australia, per the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
While Kittle is expected to play, can fantasy owners trust him for this matchup?
Week 1 Outlook
While Kittle’s speedy recovery is impressive, it’s hard not have doubts about the veteran in the early stages of the season. Kittle is only about eight months removed from the Achilles tear and he is entering his 10th season in the NFL at 32-years-old.
You have to think Kittle will see a limited workload in Week 1 and the Athletic’s Matt Barrows agrees, stating this is an article from this past week: “If Kittle plays, I’m sure he won’t be on the field for his usual 95 percent of the offensive snaps”.
Kittle running a route on around 60% of Brock Purdy’s dropbacks feels realistic and on top of the likely decreased role, this is a mediocre matchup vs. the Rams, who were PFF’s highest graded defense last season.
You also have to worry about Kittle’s speed and agility in his first game back from the major injury. That being said, Kittle should still earn targets at a high rate when he is on the field, given the tight end’s excellent chemistry with Brock Purdy.
In the seven games Kittle and Purdy played together last season, Kittle saw a target on 26% of his routes and averaged 17.1 FPTS per game.
As you can see, Kittle should bring great upside once he gets his legs back under him and is allowed to play a full complement of snaps, but in the meantime, our expectations need to be tempered.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Kittle’s receiving lines for Week 1 are currently 3.5 catches for 38.5 yards and he carries +220 odds to score a touchdown. Could Kittle get lucky and crack 10 FPTS? Yes, but him falling short of that threshold feels more likely and he shouldn’t be viewed as a top-12 tight end option for Week 1.
