The Texas Longhorns are taking on the Texas State Bobcats in an intrastate rivalry matchup. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Austin, Texas.
The Longhorns are listed as 29.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 59.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this Week 1 matchup.
Texas vs. Texas State prediction, preview
Texas Preview
This is the year for the Longhorns to take the next step. Steve Sarkisian has had no issue winning games at Texas, his issue has been winning the big games. In 2023, he won the Big 12 and made the four-team College Football Playoff. In 2024, he made the SEC title game and the College Football Playoff in Texas’ first season in its new conference. Last season, Texas came up just short of the CFP after winning nine games, but then won a 10th in the Citrus Bowl against Michigan. Arch Manning is back for one more season and can no longer use the excuse of being the inexperienced young kid. It’s now or never to go on a serious run in the College Football Playoff.
Texas State Preview
GJ Kinne has built a really solid foundation at Texas State. The Bobcats moved up to the FBS level in 2012 and went 11 seasons without making a bowl game. Kinne took over the program in 2023 and has since made three straight bowl games, winning all three of them. That level of success earned Texas State a spot in the new-look Pac-12 Conference. The new Pac-12 features two original Pac-12 teams, a big collection of former Mountain West teams and Texas State. The Bobcats are the only team not from the Pac-12 or Mountain West to get chosen for this new era of the conference. They also have a real chance to compete with Brad Jackson returning at quarterback. This could be one of the best offenses in the entire Group of Six between Kinne and Jackson.
Texas vs. Texas State Pick
My best bet for this game is for Texas and Texas State to go over the total of 59.5 points. Texas State had an electric offense last season, led by Brad Jackson. That offense should be even better this season, with Jackson back for another year. However, they should have issues on defense once again. The Bobcats should be able to get a couple of scores on the board against the Longhorns. They have a good enough offense to get points on the board against a good Texas defense.
However, the Longhorns should be able to score at will. Arch Manning should hit the ground running this season after finishing the 2025 season strong. Texas got him one of the best wide receivers in the country, Cam Coleman, to throw to this season. In a similar spot last season, Texas put up 55 points against Sam Houston. They could hang a number like that again, but Texas State should get some points on the board as well.
