There’s a buzz in the air with college football back in action – it’s Week 1, baby! The Saturday slate is where the real fun begins with just about every program in the nation across the day.
The Northwestern Wildcats haven’t been great in recent years, but they’re now coming off a campaign above the .500 mark with a bowl win to top it off. Head coach David Braun is trying to turn this program around, and he starts the new season off with a home game against the South Dakota State Jacks, an FCS power. Could this game be closer than expected?
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for South Dakota State vs. Northwestern to open Week 1 of the 2026 college football season.
South Dakota State vs. Northwestern prediction, preview
The SDSU Jacks hail from the FCS, but that doesn’t mean they’re not a good football team. This program went 9-5 last season and made the second round of the playoffs, though they were just 4-4 in their MVFC slate. They run a very respectable program and were actually back-to-back FCS champs in 2023 and 2024, so 2025 was a down year compared to usual.
The Jacks opened their 2026 campaign with a massive blowout that ended with a 70-7 final score over Stetson, also of the FCS. It’s tough to glean too much from that game given that South Dakota State appeared miles ahead of the opposition, gaining 628 total yards on the day and scoring with ease at 11.2 yards per play while actually losing the time-of-possession battle ever so slightly. The ground game dominated with James Basinger and Corey Blair Jr. both rushing for over 100 yards and three combined touchdowns on eight carries apiece, while Chase Mason completed five of his 10 passes for 157 yards and another score. The defense allowed just 265 yards on the day, but of course, that may not translate to today.
Northwestern isn’t a power in the Big Ten by any means, but did go 7-6 with a win over 34-7 win over Central Michigan in the GameAbove Sports Bowl. After a four-win season in the prior year, there’s clear progression here for David Braun’s team as they look to get back to competing once again.
Last year, the Wildcats averaged 21.8 points and 331.4 yards per game, both hovering around the 100th-best mark in the nation. However, they were genuinely good on third downs and in the red zone with a top-40 clip. The defense was quite strong while allowing just 20.9 points and 342.3 yards per contest, also both top-40 marks in the nation. Transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles now steps in as the starter having shown promise at Michigan State in the past two years. He gets a couple of returning receiving talents to throw to in Griffin Wilde (71 REC/880 YDS/8 TD) and Hayden Eligon II (37 REC/521 YDS/3TD), while Caleb Komolafe (190 CAR/941 YDS/11TD) is in the backfield again. The pieces of a good offense are here, and most of the defense has already been with the program as well.
South Dakota State vs. Northwestern pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Northwestern enters as a 14-point favorite with -575 odds on the Moneyline; South Dakota State holds +425 odds to win. The game total sits at 49.5 combined points between these teams.
This could actually be a fairly close game… if what the Jacks showed in Week 0 is real and not just a product of a poor opponent. They used to be a true contender for the FCS title on a yearly basis and play tough up front, so if last week is any indication, the offensive line and run game should somewhat hold up in this contest.
However, there’s still a difference in ability, athleticism and size between high-end FCS players and those of the Big Ten. It’s tough to bet against the Wildcats in this one, especially after retaining most of last year’s talent and making a couple of adds in the portal. I lean toward an alt spread of -13.5 for Northwestern in this one, but wouldn’t be remotely surprised if SDSU manages to cover the spread. With that consideration, I’m sticking with the under on 49.5 points since both of these teams will prefer to run the ball and control the pace of play.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 points (-115)
For easy access to tail CFB picks, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
