Top-ranked Ohio State begins its title pursuit Saturday against a Ball State squad so lowly that the Bucs are 50.5-point favorites. It’s a number which holds Ohio State to its own standard: not playing like an ordinary favorite when playing against ordinary teams. And the charge is understandable. An elite defense like this can prevent a road underdog from contributing anything meaningful against the projected margin of victory. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Ball State Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ohio State vs. Ball State prediction, preview
Ohio State allowed an absolutely elite 9.3ppg and 223.6 yards/game last season, both national bests. Opponents averaged just 4.22 yards per play and converted only 32.6% of their third downs against the Buckeyes. Granted, only three Ohio State defensive starters return, but the Buckeyes have replenished in kind with the sort of blue-chip depth we’ve all come to expect. Ball State lacks the offensive line talent or size needed to expose any sort of personnel turnover at a program like OSU.
The Cardinals averaged 15.8ppg and 271.6 yards/game in Mike Uremovich’s first season as HC. Their passing offense stunk, clocking in at just 137.3 yards per game, and the entire offensive unit averaged a disappointing 4.66 yards per play. Quarterback Keldric Luster doesn’t have much college experience yet, and should find himself up against dauntingly frequent, long third downs inside Ohio Stadium.
Ohio State’s offense offers some continuity, which we love—eight starters are back, and, more importantly, so too are 85.8% of its line snaps. Quarterback Julian Sayin completed 78.7% of his passes for 3,065 yards, 30 touchdowns, and only five interceptions last year. Jeremiah Smith remains his (and America’s) premier receiver. Meanwhile, 1,000-yard back Bo Jackson gives new OC Arthur Smith an easy rushing foundation, which Smith loves.
Ball State vs. Ohio State pick, best bet
Ball State’s defense doesn’t inspire confidence re. minimizing Buckeye points. Last year, they allowed 29.8ppg, 407.5 yards/game and 6.30 yards/play last season. Only two starters return from that unit, but still. Ohio State won’t need any sort of frantic pace to create against a day-one-Week-1 defense. Crisp early drives and favorable field position for an offense like this will lead to a halftime margin large enough for the reserves to finish and still cover.
The danger is in the look-ahead: Ohio State, at some point, will empty its bench so as to protect starters before next week’s Texas game. Its second unit should still win this matchup decisively, however. Ball State’s inability to sustain possessions keeps me on the Buckeyes. I see a shutout well within reach. I also see roughly eight Buckeye touchdowns, and a narrow cover of this enormous spread.
Best bet: Ohio State -50.5 (-108)
Projected score: Ohio State 55, Ball State 0
Best Bet: Ohio State -50.5 (-110) vs. Ball State
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
