There’s a buzz in the air with college football back in action – it’s Week 1, baby! The Saturday slate is where the real fun begins with just about every program in the nation across the day.
The reigning national champs are ready to begin their title defense. The Indiana Hoosiers are at home this week, hosting the North Texas Mean Green. The former should still be a very good team in contention for the College Football Playoff this year; the latter is entering year one of a reset after losing its head coach and most of its core to the transfer portal over the offseason. The stage is set for a blowout, but will we get one at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington?
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for North Texas vs. Indiana to open Week 1 of the 2026 college football season.
North Texas vs. Indiana prediction, preview
We’ll look at North Texas first, who are entering a new era this season. After flirting with an American Conference title and CFP appearance last year while boasting one of the best offenses in the country, this program lost just about everyone – head coach Eric Morris, standout quarterback Drew Mestemaker, plus top weapons Wyatt Young and Caleb Hawkins.
Now, former Sun Belt Coach of the Year winner Neal Brown steps in at the helm of the Mean Green program. There’s some degree of confidence that he may be able to keep this group competitive, or rebuild it from the ground up if needed, but it’s more likely the latter happens than the former. UNT lost practically everyone who played significant snaps on offense last year. The expectation is getting back to a high level on that side of the ball, but it’ll likely take some time.
The fun part of this matchup is that Tayven Jackson, who was named the starting quarterback for the Mean Green, spent two seasons at Indiana and now faces his former school. Last year with UCF, he threw for 2,151 yards with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions, though that’s hardly standout production. How he gels with this new-look offense remains uncertain, especially with little proven producers around him. With the offensive line almost entirely new faces and struggling in camp, the outlook in the early going may be dire. And, of course, this defense was already vulnerable before the portal exodus. Hanging around with Indiana should prove extremely difficult.
The national champs have relatively few issues themselves. Yes, Fernando Mendoza, Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Sarratt, D’Angelo Ponds and several other names from the title team departed for the NFL Draft. However, the one constant is Curt Cignetti, who has proven himself as one of the best coaches in the sport. Expectations are once again high, entering as No. 6 in the AP Poll.
Indiana was dominant on both sides of the ball last season, and if the incoming transfer class is able to perform, the program should repeat that type of season. Quarterback Josh Hoover threw for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns with TCU last season and now steps in as the starter here. He’ll be throwing to Nick Marsh, who transferred in from Michigan State with over 600 yards and six touchdowns, plus Charlie Becker, who also totaled over 600 yards last season for the Hoosiers. Much of the offensive line has been with the program already, continuity which is a major boon as well. Defensively, Indiana should remain quite stout in 2026 – this may not even be a matchup that truly tests this unit, either.
North Texas vs. Indiana pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Indiana enters as a massive 40.5-point favorite. The game total sits at 56.5 combined points between these teams.
Last year, this might’ve been a fun game where the Mean Green could’ve been feisty enough to hang around for a half. Given the upheaval in that program, though, such an outcome feels highly unlikely. The high-flying offense is long gone until proven otherwise and this road trip brings a brutal first test for the new-look UNT team. The 40.5-point spread is very wide, even to the point where I’m hesitant to project that the Hoosiers will cover.
However, I still think they’re worth taking a shot on here. The Mean Green are a fade until proven otherwise, and indications from camp were not particularly positive in regard to their trench play in particular. The offensive line doesn’t sound like it’s on the same page, and it’ll take some time for all the remaining pieces to gel anyways. Indiana should show why the trophy is in Bloomington.
Best Bet: Indiana -40.5 (-110)
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