On Saturday’s full MLB slate, an inter-league matchup that brings plenty of drama to the main wave of action at 7:15 p.m. ET is at Petco Park between the New York Yankees and the San Diego Padres. After a thrilling finish on Friday, the two teams will face off again on Saturday, with a pair of veteran lefties on the mound. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and make a prediction as to how Saturday night’s matchup will play out.
Looking at the odds, the Padres are -131 moneyline favorites with +163 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Yankees have +105 odds of pulling off the upset, with the run total set at 7.5 runs.
Yankees at Padres prediction, preview
The Padres won Friday’s series opener on this clutch blast in extra innings from catcher Luis Campusano:
Earlier in the game, Campusano had thrown out three Yankees on the basepaths as well, helping to carry his team to a 3-2 victory that snapped a two-game losing streak. The Padres dropped five of six games on their road trip to Tampa and Cincinnati before bouncing back with that win on Friday.
Even after that win, the Padres are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, but they are still clinging to the third NL Wild Card spot by just half a game over the Arizona Diamondbacks and 3.5 games over the Miami Marlins and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Padres aggressively added to their rotation at the trade deadline to help them get to the postseason, and one of their biggest additions will get the ball for them on Saturday as Robbie Ray takes the hill for his sixth start with San Diego.
In his five outings with the Padres, Ray is 1-1 with a 3.42 ERA but an inflated 5.94 FIP as a result of giving up a home run in every one of those starts. He’s surrendered a total of 20 hits and 16 walks across 26.1 innings. The veteran southpaw has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts, but his underlying metrics haven’t backed up his solid results.
Since he spent so long in the AL East, Ray has faced the Yankees eight times in his career, going 2-4 with a 3.89 ERA. He has allowed two runs or fewer in three straight outings against them, including a matchup in March when he was with the Giants. He took the loss in that game, but the Padres will count on him turning things around for this rematch.
The Padres are an impressive 42-28 at home this season and have won five of their six home series since the All-Star break. Coming home helped them get back in the win column on Friday, and they’ll hope Ray can give them a solid start on Saturday as they look to make it back-to-back wins.
The Yankees are still firmly in the top Wild Card spot in the American League with an 80-61 record, 3.5 games ahead of Boston and 8.5 games ahead of Cleveland, who hold the other two Wild Card spots. While they have all but locked up a playoff spot, the division may be out of reach as they remain four games behind the Rays.
New York took three of four games against the Red Sox last weekend in a big series and then took two of three from the Angels in Anaheim to start the week before arriving in San Diego.
Despite their continued success, the Yankees’ offense is missing multiple key contributors. On Friday, they also lost Trent Grisham, who left with discomfort in his right hamstring and was placed on the injured list on Saturday. Aaron Judge (ribs) remains out as well, in addition to Giancarlo Stanton (calf). Grisham may not have started against the lefty Ray anyway, but his absence further strains a thinning roster.
The Yankees need their deadline acquisition from the Giants, Heliot Ramos, to come up large against his former teammate, Robbie Ray. Another key contributor for the Yankees could be Amed Rosario, whom I like as a value play for fantasy lineups on Saturday night. Jasson Dominguez returned to the team from Triple-A to take Grisham’s roster spot, and he and Spencer Jones will likely see a bump in playing time for as long as Grisham is unavailable.
Opposing Ray, the Yankees will give the ball to Carlos Rodon, who has been working his way back to full strength, much like Friday’s starter Max Fried. Rodon has ramped up with three starts since returning from his elbow injury, pitching four innings against the Orioles and the Blue Jays before stretching out to 4.2 innings against the Red Sox in his most recent appearance. He threw 88 pitches in that game, so he should be almost back to 100%.
Rodon is very familiar with the Padres from his time with the Giants and is 2-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 31.2 career innings against them. He has won both of his two career starts at Petco Park, allowing just one earned run in 15 innings with 14 strikeouts in San Diego.
Even while he has been ramping up, he has done a good job limiting damage against him, allowing only four total runs in his 12.2 innings (2.84 ERA) since returning. He should be set for another strong outing in his return to Petco, especially since the Padres rank in the bottom 10 of MLB in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties this season.
The Padres have managed only three runs in three straight games. Some key hitters in the lineup have been struggling this week, including Fernando Tatis Jr. (6-for-27), Jackson Merrill (5-for-24) and Jake Cronenworth (1-for-21). Ty France and Manny Machado have been doing better, but they need Tatis to rediscover his stroke before the lineup can really start clicking.
Yankees at Padres pick, best bet
This shapes up to be a low-scoring game with offenses that haven’t been hot for a while. Both Ray and Rodon are established veterans, but Rodon has had slightly better form lately. I also give the Yankees a slight edge in the bullpen if the game is close late, since Mason Miller pitched two innings in Friday’s win along with an inning from Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez and Yuki Matsui. The Yankees, in contrast, used just David Bednar and Paul Blackburn (for just seven pitches).
With better overall form, a warming starting pitcher, and the bullpen availability edge, getting the Yankees at plus money feels like a strong value play this Saturday night in San Diego.
Best bet: Yankees Moneyline (+109)
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